Seems to have been surprisingly little coverage (maybe I just haven't seen it) of the fact that UK Covid caseload stopped falling before the end of the lockdown.pic.twitter.com/9I5itfxtn1
Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him
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Seems to have been surprisingly little coverage (maybe I just haven't seen it) of the fact that UK Covid caseload stopped falling before the end of the lockdown.pic.twitter.com/9I5itfxtn1
Now that the Brits are up - is this something people just don't feel ready to talk about because it's bleak or have I missed the discussion?
I think there's actually reasonably compelling evidence that the date of the lockdown is not nearly as important as the government's announcements - the day the announcement comes out people change behaviour, not the day that the laws start being enforced
That would make sense - but this would still be bad news in that sense, no?
Not necessarily. Could then reverse the trend by announcing new regulations even if they are not enforced. Either way tho, it's a complex one
Does it seem like it's symmetrical in terms of restrictions and relaxations? From the mobility data it doesn't look that way but I haven't gone too in depth.
Actually I think it varies by area. Our hospitalization data shows the opposite effect - people stopped coming early and even once restrictions relax don't come back in the same numbers
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