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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 3 Dec 2020

      Ugh both the headline and the study it's based on are...pretty dubious Let's look at some science on twitter 1/npic.twitter.com/CY9kuG8mxi

      7 replies 15 retweets 81 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 3 Dec 2020

      2/n Paper is here, it's really your bog-standard epidemiological study. The authors took a large database of people who had tested positive to COVID-19 and compared them to people who hadn't in Israelhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221321982031240X …

      1 reply 0 retweets 12 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 3 Dec 2020

      3/n The two groups were different in loads of ways. However, after putting all the variables into a statistical model, they found that asthma appeared to still be significantly connected to risk of COVID-19!pic.twitter.com/gci3cfcuF5

      2:21 PM - 3 Dec 2020
      • 12 Likes
      • Ketofan1000 ConvoOfCosmos Johnny Rhee🔴 Dr. Vakzimilian Suzanne Currie Sean P Nickerson fanatla (Saint's Fan account/cuenta de fan) Gracie Lou Who Jim
      1 reply 0 retweets 12 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 3 Dec 2020

          4/n They then went on to suggest that this statistically significant result may mean that asthma is protective against COVID-19, although the mechanism is unknownpic.twitter.com/NXSyAXXyYU

          2 replies 0 retweets 10 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 3 Dec 2020

          5/n Now, most epidemiologists are probably already groaning, because this is a very beautiful example of the Table 2 fallacy, which is a pretty common problempic.twitter.com/Gtus24RHP2

          1 reply 0 retweets 21 likes
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        4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 3 Dec 2020

          6/n The basic issue here is that you have to be VERY CAREFUL with your statistical models. If you just lump everything in together it can make the results a bit meaningless

          1 reply 0 retweets 17 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 3 Dec 2020

          7/n There's also a problem in this study that boils down to selection bias You see, the study wasn't looking at every person infected with COVID-19 It was looking at everyone who TESTED POSITIVE TO COVID-19

          2 replies 0 retweets 16 likes
          Show this thread
        6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 3 Dec 2020

          8/n This creates an issue known as selection bias. The group of people that is selected to be studied (due to who got a test for COVID-19 in Israel earlier this year) may not be representative of the population in crucial ways that could have biased the results

          1 reply 0 retweets 16 likes
          Show this thread
        7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 3 Dec 2020

          9/n For example, we know that asthma diagnoses are very variable by many characteristics, which may also make people more or less likely to go get tested for COVID-19 (young men, for example - lots of asthma, might avoid testing)pic.twitter.com/VvkzTdo93f

          1 reply 0 retweets 13 likes
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        8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 3 Dec 2020

          10/n It also makes correcting for confounding challenging, because we do not know which biases are influencing the SELECTION of participants

          1 reply 0 retweets 13 likes
          Show this thread
        9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 3 Dec 2020

          11/n Ultimately, it's a bit hard to say more than that people with asthma were less likely to have a positive COVID-19 test in the group of people presenting for testing in Israel earlier this year

          1 reply 0 retweets 14 likes
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        10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 3 Dec 2020

          12/n While that's a bit less sensational than the headline, it's also a bit more truepic.twitter.com/LLhY2Dw0EK

          1 reply 0 retweets 14 likes
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        11. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 3 Dec 2020

          13/n I should also note - the study itself is fine, generally, but the limitations section doesn't really discuss some of the biggest drawbacks of their methodology which I don't lovepic.twitter.com/iHFE2FPRyA

          2 replies 0 retweets 15 likes
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        12. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 3 Dec 2020

          14/n Anyway, the most likely explanation to me for fewer people with asthma getting COVID-19 is that we told them to be careful not to catch the respiratory infection because they could easily die and so they were more careful Inhalers? Ehhhhh

          9 replies 2 retweets 55 likes
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        13. End of conversation

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