The "utterly untested" part of this tweet is also nonsense and displays a complete lack of understanding of how vaccine trials work and how impressive the COVID-19 effort has been
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What is my risk of contracting the coronavirus in the first place? Is my risk of death 0.11% after having contracted it first? And, how much does the vaccine reduce these risks? What are the odds that the vaccine does indeed prevent me from getting ill?
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your risk of eventually getting covid is strong if other peoples follow that reasoning and don’t get vaccinated. Of course the least risky thing in absolute would be the only one not vaccinating in a society where everyone is, but that can’t be an argument for not getting vacc.
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The risk of death from the virus is not that though, right? The risk of death should rather be prob(getting it)*IFR, while prob(getting vaccine) is =1 if you choose to get the vaccine.
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[ I mean: the vaccine still wins easily given that the probability of getting the virus is large enough, but I am just pointing out the issue ]
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A good point well made

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Is the 0.11% the risk of death IF the 44 year old catches covid? If so, the 0.11% should be adjusted for the risk of contraction to make this an apples to apples comparison. If you do nothing, your risk is x, if you vaccinate, risk is y.
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But to me, the risk, conditional on catching virus, now includes others who one may spread it to, and you could take it out further, as those who one infects, now risk infecting others, and so on.
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I read this as "As an economist, I have no idea what I'm talking about when it comes to infectious diseases and epidemiology, but here we go anyways..."
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Also is it just me or is he basically treating everything in his overly simplistic model as an externality? I guess that's not too surprising given his academic training...
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