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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 28 Nov 2020

    Health Nerd Retweeted Marc Bevand

    The "dry tinder" theory was always reprehensible nonsense based on wild theories The fact that the AEIR spent so much time on it gives you some indication of how little they care about factshttps://twitter.com/zorinaq/status/1332752614463852544 …

    Health Nerd added,

    Marc Bevand @zorinaq
    Dry tinder theory continues to fall apart It said Sweden's high covid deaths/capita compared to Nordic region was due to a 2019-2020 winter with few deaths, sparing the elderly, leaving them as "tinder" for 1st COVID wave But the "tinder" is gone & 2nd wave still kills 6x more pic.twitter.com/xxGWUcqnnJ
    Show this thread
    2:01 PM - 28 Nov 2020
    • 21 Retweets
    • 78 Likes
    • peter claassen (((bugs))) xo Moftan 🍐 Hiti de Kretser: AZ all the way! 🐢🦥 Nigel Kinbrum Caro S. 😷 Belinda den Ouden Sophie KS is not John Maynard Keynes lex hoogduin
    4 replies 21 retweets 78 likes
      1. Ronald Hirsch, MD‏ @signaturedoc 28 Nov 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        Even the term “dry tinder” is reprehensible. Seems like something @ScottWAtlas would say.

        0 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
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      1. Matt Fletcher‏ @longevitymatt 28 Nov 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        Matt Fletcher Retweeted COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

        We did a short paper on this recently at @COVID19actuaryhttps://twitter.com/COVID19actuary/status/1331642283243036678 …

        Matt Fletcher added,

        COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group @COVID19actuary
        It’s been suggested that the severity of COVID-19 in the UK is partly due to low mortality in 2019, with fewer excess winter deaths. We’ve examined this in depth, concluding that the high number of UK excess deaths is NOT simply a consequence of low winter deaths in 2018/19. pic.twitter.com/JQR2oCHKTt
        Show this thread
        0 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Sam Vanloocke‏ @SamVanloocke 28 Nov 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        Am I correct to assume that this 'dry tinder' theory relies on a 'mild flu season'? I assume that flu infects only a small portion of the population even during a severe flu season. So the portion of elderly that die from covid that would have died from the flu is small.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Sam Vanloocke‏ @SamVanloocke 28 Nov 2020
        Replying to @SamVanloocke @GidMK

        Only around 10% get infected each season depending on severity. 90% of this 'dry tinder' would remain untouched by flu anyway. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/keyfacts.htm#:~:text=Both%20methods%20had%20similar%20findings,%25%2C%20depending%20on%20the%20season ….pic.twitter.com/Drea7srbDl

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Ryan Hisner‏ @LongDesertTrain 28 Nov 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        I think it's safe to say, without even reading it, that any epidemiological paper from an economic think tank is going to be chock-full of nonsense. I remember reading one this summer that gave about 30 reasons Sweden had a higher death rate than other Nordic countries.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Ryan Hisner‏ @LongDesertTrain 28 Nov 2020
        Replying to @LongDesertTrain @GidMK

        It was like they just threw any idea they could think of against the wall to see if it would stick, without analyzing any of them in depth. I'm sure their target audience ate it all up. I wish I could find that "study" again. Can't remember which economic think tank wrote it.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. End of conversation

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