I don't see how that explains a relative lack of trailing zeroes on things like the count of tests (5 digits per day), unless X is some strange prime number.
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Replying to @sTeamTraen @jburnmurdoch
Maybe a prime number of reporting districts?
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Replying to @GidMK @jburnmurdoch
But the numbers from each district are meant to be essentially random.
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Replying to @sTeamTraen @jburnmurdoch
This is where my mathematical knowledge fails me. If you had a collection of largely random numbers and multiplied by a constant prime would you expect to end up with a dataset that adheres to Benford's?
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Replying to @GidMK @jburnmurdoch
No. And remember, we're talking about the boring, uniform-distribution 3rd digit bit of Benford's Law here, not the sexy curves of the first digit.
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Replying to @sTeamTraen @jburnmurdoch
Lol @ sexy curves. That makes sense. I can't really think of a reason that would cause such a violation of Benford's, but I would also say that these systems are composed of so many moving parts that it could be very hard to identify the cause here
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I think the mechanism is this: you’ve been told to “make up numbers” that “look” real. You think “round numbers” look fake. Thus, you never enter any round numbers!
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Possible, perhaps, but it would require quite a large coordinated effort and also what's the point? The numbers aren't looking good at all for Turkey even using these figures, so it's not like they're saving face or something
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Saving face is relative. Wartime propaganda doesn't say we shot down 100 enemy planes for no losses of our own, you say we shot down 72 for 12 of our own.
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Replying to @sTeamTraen @GidMK and
Also, no coordination is required whatsoever. People around the country report their numbers in dribs and drabs, then someone in the ministry adds them up, throws them away, and replaces them with a number that won't get them shouted at.
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I can't speak for Turkey but that doesn't sound like any public health system I've worked in. They tend to be enormous bureaucracies where it's a headache to change one number never mind every number that the country is reporting
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I think you may have an optimistic view of what such an organisation look like after a decade of de facto dictatorship.
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