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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Nick Brown‏ @sTeamTraen 26 Nov 2020

      Nick Brown Retweeted Nick Brown

      @gidmk @jburnmurdochhttps://twitter.com/sTeamTraen/status/1331985658139860998 …

      Nick Brown added,

      Nick Brown @sTeamTraen
      Something rather strange is happening with the COVID-19 statistics produced by the Turkish Ministry of Health. (Thread) /1
      Show this thread
      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 26 Nov 2020
      Replying to @sTeamTraen @jburnmurdoch

      Interesting! My first go-to explanation would be that these statistics are input by humans pretty much everywhere, so there's a reasonable likelihood that it's some weird rule causing discrepancies (like, wait until you've got x cases from each reporting region)

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Nick Brown‏ @sTeamTraen 26 Nov 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @jburnmurdoch

      I don't see how that explains a relative lack of trailing zeroes on things like the count of tests (5 digits per day), unless X is some strange prime number.

      3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 26 Nov 2020
      Replying to @sTeamTraen @jburnmurdoch

      Maybe a prime number of reporting districts?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Nick Brown‏ @sTeamTraen 26 Nov 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @jburnmurdoch

      But the numbers from each district are meant to be essentially random.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 26 Nov 2020
      Replying to @sTeamTraen @jburnmurdoch

      This is where my mathematical knowledge fails me. If you had a collection of largely random numbers and multiplied by a constant prime would you expect to end up with a dataset that adheres to Benford's?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Nick Brown‏ @sTeamTraen 26 Nov 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @jburnmurdoch

      No. And remember, we're talking about the boring, uniform-distribution 3rd digit bit of Benford's Law here, not the sexy curves of the first digit.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 26 Nov 2020
      Replying to @sTeamTraen @jburnmurdoch

      Lol @ sexy curves. That makes sense. I can't really think of a reason that would cause such a violation of Benford's, but I would also say that these systems are composed of so many moving parts that it could be very hard to identify the cause here

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    9. Christopher R. Perle, PhD (Biologist, from birth)‏ @DrSeaPerle 26 Nov 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @sTeamTraen @jburnmurdoch

      I think the mechanism is this: you’ve been told to “make up numbers” that “look” real. You think “round numbers” look fake. Thus, you never enter any round numbers!

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 26 Nov 2020
      Replying to @DrSeaPerle @sTeamTraen @jburnmurdoch

      Possible, perhaps, but it would require quite a large coordinated effort and also what's the point? The numbers aren't looking good at all for Turkey even using these figures, so it's not like they're saving face or something

      1:10 PM - 26 Nov 2020
      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Nick Brown‏ @sTeamTraen 26 Nov 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @DrSeaPerle @jburnmurdoch

          Saving face is relative. Wartime propaganda doesn't say we shot down 100 enemy planes for no losses of our own, you say we shot down 72 for 12 of our own.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Nick Brown‏ @sTeamTraen 26 Nov 2020
          Replying to @sTeamTraen @GidMK and

          Also, no coordination is required whatsoever. People around the country report their numbers in dribs and drabs, then someone in the ministry adds them up, throws them away, and replaces them with a number that won't get them shouted at.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Christopher R. Perle, PhD (Biologist, from birth)‏ @DrSeaPerle 26 Nov 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @sTeamTraen @jburnmurdoch

          just a mechanism, not saying that is what is happening. (disagree on the large coordinated effort though, amazing what people will do to keep their jobs/livelihoods) as for why try? I quit trying to rationalize insanity after I got out grad school.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Nick Brown‏ @sTeamTraen 26 Nov 2020
          Replying to @DrSeaPerle @GidMK @jburnmurdoch

          Just for fun, here's what happens if you combine the numbers from cases, deaths, tests, and recoveries.pic.twitter.com/6f8avcR6mA

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies

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