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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Sjors Provoost‏ @provoost 25 Nov 2020
      Replying to @provoost @peterktodd

      It also doesn't really measure symptoms during infection, because (IIUC) they only asked about the past two weeks. Surveyed people may downplay symptoms for fear of employers (workplace coverups even happen in countries with strong labor protection laws and no secret police).pic.twitter.com/lzuHcueDMv

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    2. Sjors Provoost‏ @provoost 25 Nov 2020
      Replying to @provoost @peterktodd

      Death wasn't measured in this study, because you can't interview dead people. 0 deaths is implausible. Even if all 2 million migrant workers were 25 (IFR 0.01%) then at 60% infected, there should be 120 deaths. They've covered this stuff up before: https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/mar/16/qatar-world-cup-report-reveals-34-stadium-worker-deaths-in-six-years …

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    3. Peter Todd‏ @peterktodd 25 Nov 2020
      Replying to @provoost

      You can't interview dead people? Hmm? Obviously you just check the overall death stats. I can't find any source saying any migrant workers have died of COVID. And it's not implausible: IFR for 20-29 w/o comorbidities would get you 7 deaths, assuming 100% of workers stayed.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Peter Todd‏ @peterktodd 25 Nov 2020
      Replying to @peterktodd @provoost

      It's a really young population, with an unusual combination of potentially having good access to health care (Qatar wants to keep deaths low for PR reasons obviously), while also coming from a very poor background. Both seem to be protective.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Peter Todd‏ @peterktodd 25 Nov 2020
      Replying to @peterktodd @provoost

      I can't find actual numbers. But it sounds likely that very significant #'s of the workers have left, which will drive things down even further.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Peter Todd‏ @peterktodd 25 Nov 2020
      Replying to @peterktodd @provoost

      Anyway, looking at the study again, I think they meant "no workers have died" in the context of the study participants, which I misread. Although I'd be interested in knowing if someone actually has a number for how many migrants have actually died.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Sjors Provoost‏ @provoost 26 Nov 2020
      Replying to @peterktodd

      Sjors Provoost Retweeted Sjors Provoost

      What's your source for IFR? The 0.01% I cited for 25 year olds is from @GidMK e.a. If you expect 7 deaths instead of 120, then either you assume IFR at age 25 is 20x lower, or the work force are young teenagers. Source for age distribution would help too.https://twitter.com/provoost/status/1312429896694673410 …

      Sjors Provoost added,

      Sjors Provoost @provoost
      Although log-linear regressions make me a bit itchy, at minimum this meta-analysis points out common gotchas in IFR studies. Additional appendices: M: for "just the flu" crowd Q: for "they're all fat" crowd PS: morbility not included. (via @c_drosten) https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v5 … pic.twitter.com/1iBFrOHyJK
      Show this thread
      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    8. Sjors Provoost‏ @provoost 26 Nov 2020
      Replying to @provoost @peterktodd @GidMK

      "no covid-19 deaths have been reported" is a vague statement in paper. If it refers to study group, then it's very weird: afaik they only approached living people, unless they sampled from a registry of people alive at some earlier point in time and looked at death certificates.

      3 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 26 Nov 2020
      Replying to @provoost @peterktodd

      I'm not sure about migrant workers specifically but if you plot the Qatar deaths by age using our metaregression it fits almost perfectly

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Sjors Provoost‏ @provoost 26 Nov 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @peterktodd

      By which you mean (?): given the age distribtion of Qatar, the total number of deaths matches what you would expect? Or do you have age specific death data from Qatar?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 26 Nov 2020
      Replying to @provoost @peterktodd

      I calculated it months back from either deaths or case data when the study was first preprinted. Can't remember exactly, would have to look it up

      11:00 AM - 26 Nov 2020
      0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes

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