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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 23 Nov 2020

      If the U.S. maintains current infections (~200k/day) of COVID-19, and assuming about 17% of the country has already been infected, it will be about a year before the country reaches herd immunity Compare that to vaccine rollout schedules

      9 replies 5 retweets 46 likes
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    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 23 Nov 2020

      Calculations: US pop: ~328mil 17% infected: ~60mil (per serology and @youyanggu) 40% (low) HIT: ~131mil 131-60 = ~71mil ~71mil/200k = 356 Add a few weeks for everyone to be ~immune~, and it's a bit more than a year

      6 replies 0 retweets 12 likes
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    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 23 Nov 2020

      Yes, this is assuming the 200k number is reliable, which we know it is not. It is likely that there are instead 400k infections per day, which halves this number. It is also likely that the HIT is 60-70%, which doubles it 🤷‍♂️

      1 reply 1 retweet 16 likes
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      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 23 Nov 2020

      The point is that those advocating for herd immunity are usually ridiculously vague about timelines, because as soon as you crunch the numbers you realize it is not today or tomorrow but 6+ months from now that HI would be happening

      7:09 PM - 23 Nov 2020
      • 29 Likes
      • Garf Zach Hensel fipco-bio Jenn Dowd David Penington 💉💉AZ #NotABotOrTrot Atomsk's Sanakan Crunch Johnny Rhee🔴 blahloney
      7 replies 0 retweets 29 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. The Pickled Onions  🙂‏ @PickledPat 23 Nov 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Hi Gid what's ur take for offering the vaccine to the elderly if they want it & let everyone else get on with life as normal? Obviously the "elderly" would have to be defined, but the chances of dying from Covid for under 65's in Ottawa (see the video!) is 1 in 300,000 tnx! Pat

          3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. The Pickled Onions  🙂‏ @PickledPat 23 Nov 2020
          Replying to @PickledPat @GidMK

          As long as hospitals aren't overwhelmed (luckily in Ireland we've been underwhelmed all year barring march/April ☘️) aren't we better off letting it run it's natural course so we can develop actual immunity ala measles instead of an untested vaccine? What are your thoughts?

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. Balgor‏ @Balgor11 23 Nov 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          There’s also that 1.5-2.5 million dead too at 70% herd immunity. But old people and people with comorbidities aren’t really people or so I’ve heard.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. James Ashburner‏ @EurekaJames 23 Nov 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          You’re reminding me how gratifying it was, late career, to be a respected source of methodical numeric analyses. Forensic ability—I’d never suspected I had this—was remarkably satisfying.

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        1. Lance Paddock‏ @ThompsoncreekW 23 Nov 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          And what happens realistically once HIT is hit? It doesn’t just stop at 40%. It keeps going, unless we get eradication. Without that don’t we get to 60-70% eventually anyway? And then it is still there, just at a low level? And once we let the vulnerable out of the magic bubble?

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        1. Alex Selby‏ @alexselby1770 23 Nov 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          When the GBD types are given their soft interviews they are never asked about timescales to HI. Either you keep the isolation measures they hate to try to get a semi-controlled 6+ months to HI, or you don't and there is an explosion in infections which would be gruesome.

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        1. Girish‏ @BernieB53293225 24 Nov 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          It's more like they fantasize everyone will agree with them, instantly end all protective measures & cough on 10 people, quickly bury the bodies of all the olds and comorbids who died regrettable but "unavoidable" deaths & get back to normal by the end of the week.

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        1. David Penington  💉 💉AZ #NotABotOrTrot‏ @DavidPenington2 24 Nov 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          I'm sure they can achieve a million infections per day. 😕

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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