If the U.S. maintains current infections (~200k/day) of COVID-19, and assuming about 17% of the country has already been infected, it will be about a year before the country reaches herd immunity Compare that to vaccine rollout schedules
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Hi Gid what's ur take for offering the vaccine to the elderly if they want it & let everyone else get on with life as normal? Obviously the "elderly" would have to be defined, but the chances of dying from Covid for under 65's in Ottawa (see the video!) is 1 in 300,000 tnx! Pat
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As long as hospitals aren't overwhelmed (luckily in Ireland we've been underwhelmed all year barring march/April
) aren't we better off letting it run it's natural course so we can develop actual immunity ala measles instead of an untested vaccine? What are your thoughts? - Show replies
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There’s also that 1.5-2.5 million dead too at 70% herd immunity. But old people and people with comorbidities aren’t really people or so I’ve heard.
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You’re reminding me how gratifying it was, late career, to be a respected source of methodical numeric analyses. Forensic ability—I’d never suspected I had this—was remarkably satisfying.
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And what happens realistically once HIT is hit? It doesn’t just stop at 40%. It keeps going, unless we get eradication. Without that don’t we get to 60-70% eventually anyway? And then it is still there, just at a low level? And once we let the vulnerable out of the magic bubble?
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When the GBD types are given their soft interviews they are never asked about timescales to HI. Either you keep the isolation measures they hate to try to get a semi-controlled 6+ months to HI, or you don't and there is an explosion in infections which would be gruesome.
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It's more like they fantasize everyone will agree with them, instantly end all protective measures & cough on 10 people, quickly bury the bodies of all the olds and comorbids who died regrettable but "unavoidable" deaths & get back to normal by the end of the week.
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I'm sure they can achieve a million infections per day.
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