If the U.S. maintains current infections (~200k/day) of COVID-19, and assuming about 17% of the country has already been infected, it will be about a year before the country reaches herd immunity Compare that to vaccine rollout schedules
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Yes, this is assuming the 200k number is reliable, which we know it is not. It is likely that there are instead 400k infections per day, which halves this number. It is also likely that the HIT is 60-70%, which doubles it
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The point is that those advocating for herd immunity are usually ridiculously vague about timelines, because as soon as you crunch the numbers you realize it is not today or tomorrow but 6+ months from now that HI would be happening
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End of conversation
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Now do deaths?
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You didn't crunch the number of deaths, which usually comes with this combo meal.
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shouldn’t you also use a multiplier of ~3 to convert from “official” cases to true new infections? Thus 3x faster
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Just an update on Youyang's estimate. He's active again and has updated his model. Today he shows as of 11/9 an estimate of 49.3 million and 14.9%. Oliver Wyman (strong model per Youyang Gu's performance tracking) estimates 41.8 million, 12.7% as of today.
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Choose your IFR to go with an HIT of 40% (let’s add 10% for overshoot, deaths don’t stop at HIT): even if new therapuetics bring IFR down to .4%, that’d be 720,000 dead by the time the counting is done.pic.twitter.com/WJSBxdttiK
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