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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 23 Nov 2020

      If the U.S. maintains current infections (~200k/day) of COVID-19, and assuming about 17% of the country has already been infected, it will be about a year before the country reaches herd immunity Compare that to vaccine rollout schedules

      9 replies 5 retweets 46 likes
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      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 23 Nov 2020

      Calculations: US pop: ~328mil 17% infected: ~60mil (per serology and @youyanggu) 40% (low) HIT: ~131mil 131-60 = ~71mil ~71mil/200k = 356 Add a few weeks for everyone to be ~immune~, and it's a bit more than a year

      6:53 PM - 23 Nov 2020
      • 12 Likes
      • Garf Andrea Etter (Curiosity, PhD) Crunch Johnny Rhee🔴 מאיר רובין Meir Rubin Jim Peter Harrison Aaron Ryan Armstrong
      6 replies 0 retweets 12 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 23 Nov 2020

          Yes, this is assuming the 200k number is reliable, which we know it is not. It is likely that there are instead 400k infections per day, which halves this number. It is also likely that the HIT is 60-70%, which doubles it 🤷‍♂️

          1 reply 1 retweet 16 likes
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        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 23 Nov 2020

          The point is that those advocating for herd immunity are usually ridiculously vague about timelines, because as soon as you crunch the numbers you realize it is not today or tomorrow but 6+ months from now that HI would be happening

          7 replies 0 retweets 29 likes
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        4. End of conversation
        1. Alain Trahan‏ @trahana 23 Nov 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @youyanggu

          Now do deaths?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Wallace Francis‏ @WFrancisEsq 23 Nov 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @youyanggu

          You didn't crunch the number of deaths, which usually comes with this combo meal.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Lucre Snooker‏ @LucreSnooker 23 Nov 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @youyanggu

          shouldn’t you also use a multiplier of ~3 to convert from “official” cases to true new infections? Thus 3x faster

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Peter Harrison‏ @Villager1244 23 Nov 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @youyanggu

          Just an update on Youyang's estimate. He's active again and has updated his model. Today he shows as of 11/9 an estimate of 49.3 million and 14.9%. Oliver Wyman (strong model per Youyang Gu's performance tracking) estimates 41.8 million, 12.7% as of today.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Christopher R. Perle, PhD (Biologist, from birth)‏ @DrSeaPerle 23 Nov 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @youyanggu

          Choose your IFR to go with an HIT of 40% (let’s add 10% for overshoot, deaths don’t stop at HIT): even if new therapuetics bring IFR down to .4%, that’d be 720,000 dead by the time the counting is done.pic.twitter.com/WJSBxdttiK

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