Calculations:
US pop: ~328mil
17% infected: ~60mil (per serology and @youyanggu)
40% (low) HIT: ~131mil
131-60 = ~71mil
~71mil/200k = 356
Add a few weeks for everyone to be ~immune~, and it's a bit more than a year
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Yes, this is assuming the 200k number is reliable, which we know it is not. It is likely that there are instead 400k infections per day, which halves this number. It is also likely that the HIT is 60-70%, which doubles it
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The point is that those advocating for herd immunity are usually ridiculously vague about timelines, because as soon as you crunch the numbers you realize it is not today or tomorrow but 6+ months from now that HI would be happening
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Respectfully the true number of infections is likely something like 400k per day right?
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Probably, but hard to know for sure. It's still in the range of many months to reach even the very low estimates of herd immunity - remember, it took the US 11 months to get to 17%!
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And untold thousands dead // many others with as yet not fully understood long/short term side effects I assume too, yes?
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I'm curious, as im still learning so much and its been a lot to absorb, but wouldn't the difference between infection herd immunity, and vaccination herd immunity, be that vaccination herd immunity isn't going to damage living cells like live the virus does?
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And by that time the remaining herd will be severely thinned.

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Ok so somewhere between 6 mos and a year for immunity without vaccines. How fast with herd immunity + vaccines? Is there a relatively easy, cost effective way to test people and only immunize people without existing immunity? Or is that dumb?
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It's probably more cost effective just to immunise people as we wouldn't be able to process the blood tests required. Also worth envisioning 6-12 months where all healthcare is basically unavailable because of the number of covid patients in hospital.
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