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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 23 Nov 2020

    If the U.S. maintains current infections (~200k/day) of COVID-19, and assuming about 17% of the country has already been infected, it will be about a year before the country reaches herd immunity Compare that to vaccine rollout schedules

    6:53 PM - 23 Nov 2020
    • 5 Retweets
    • 46 Likes
    • Leesa 'soapy clean hands' Klich, MSc 🇨🇦 . transplantrockstar kim bellard Andrew Jagim, PhD Mr. Whiffs On Breakaways Andrea Etter (Curiosity, PhD) Jocelyn Knockersbury Crunch
    9 replies 5 retweets 46 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 23 Nov 2020

        Calculations: US pop: ~328mil 17% infected: ~60mil (per serology and @youyanggu) 40% (low) HIT: ~131mil 131-60 = ~71mil ~71mil/200k = 356 Add a few weeks for everyone to be ~immune~, and it's a bit more than a year

        6 replies 0 retweets 12 likes
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      3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 23 Nov 2020

        Yes, this is assuming the 200k number is reliable, which we know it is not. It is likely that there are instead 400k infections per day, which halves this number. It is also likely that the HIT is 60-70%, which doubles it 🤷‍♂️

        1 reply 1 retweet 16 likes
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      4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 23 Nov 2020

        The point is that those advocating for herd immunity are usually ridiculously vague about timelines, because as soon as you crunch the numbers you realize it is not today or tomorrow but 6+ months from now that HI would be happening

        7 replies 0 retweets 29 likes
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      5. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Centrist  🤝Madness‏ @CentristMadness 23 Nov 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        Respectfully the true number of infections is likely something like 400k per day right?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 23 Nov 2020
        Replying to @CentristMadness

        Probably, but hard to know for sure. It's still in the range of many months to reach even the very low estimates of herd immunity - remember, it took the US 11 months to get to 17%!

        2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. Not now, I'm... too drunk  🌏  🏳️‍🌈‏ @adapt20301 23 Nov 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        And untold thousands dead // many others with as yet not fully understood long/short term side effects I assume too, yes?

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. ♡ キス 𝕾𝖔𝖗𝖘𝖆𝖗𝖎𝖊 - dn ʞsɐɯ ♡‏ @sorsarie 23 Nov 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        I'm curious, as im still learning so much and its been a lot to absorb, but wouldn't the difference between infection herd immunity, and vaccination herd immunity, be that vaccination herd immunity isn't going to damage living cells like live the virus does?

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. The_Skeptical_Scientist ⚗️ 💉 🔬 🔭 ⚖️‏ @TheSkepticalSc2 24 Nov 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        And by that time the remaining herd will be severely thinned.🤦‍♂️🤦‍♀️

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. New conversation
      2. Rick Calvert‏ @blogworld 24 Nov 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        Ok so somewhere between 6 mos and a year for immunity without vaccines. How fast with herd immunity + vaccines? Is there a relatively easy, cost effective way to test people and only immunize people without existing immunity? Or is that dumb?

        2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Dr Jen Burgess‏ @drjlburgess 24 Nov 2020
        Replying to @blogworld @GidMK

        It's probably more cost effective just to immunise people as we wouldn't be able to process the blood tests required. Also worth envisioning 6-12 months where all healthcare is basically unavailable because of the number of covid patients in hospital.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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