Thank you. Question: Is COVID really 10x more lethal than the flu? Recent stats suggest that's an exaggeration. There's would be 300K to 800K dead in the US already. Isn't it more accurate to say 3-5x as bad--serious but not catastrophic?
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Replying to @johnnybilo @andrew_croxford
The precise number is something of an estimate, but I think we can say with some confidence that at most ages COVID-19 is at least 10x as deadly as influenzahttps://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v7 …
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Replying to @GidMK @andrew_croxford
30K - 80K die from the flu, with about 65M infected in an average year. Current estimates are 50M have been infected w/COVID, or 3/4 of the flu total. So, if it is 10x worse, we'd be at 225K - 600K dead. So, I guess 10X worse than a weak flu.
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Y r u trying so hard to extrapolate a conclusion from values that u have no real understanding of? A real, live, qualified expert just told u what the data says, and his analysis is shared amongst the vast majority of similarly qualified folks. Why is that never enough for some?!
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You don't have to be an epidemiologist to do math. You blindly accept everything. I'm going to keep asking questions while taking reasonable precautions for my family and my community. It's a pandemic caused by a novel coronavirus; no one is truly a "qualified expert" yet.
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You don't have to be an expert to distinguish between the inferred deaths attributed to influenza through the CDC's yearly modelling exercise and deaths directly recorded as COVID-19 in 2020, but it certainly helps
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