Adds more to the storyhttps://twitter.com/jljcolorado/status/1330542699250929664 …
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Replying to @MackayIM
Man I love this sort of reference chain. The CNN article links to a CDC page which references a modelling study that assumed that presymptomatic people were more infectious based on one analysis of viral shedding from earlier this year
2 replies 4 retweets 34 likes -
Also, don't know whether I'd agree. Epidemiological evidence doesn't really support the idea that the majority of transmission is from asymptomatic/presymptomatic people, although obviously a lot of uncertaintyhttps://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1003346 …
1 reply 1 retweet 19 likes -
Replying to @GidMK
I thought it was from the CDC advice which cites https://www.pnas.org/content/117/30/17513.long … and https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/scientific-brief-sars-cov-2.html …. The latter is interesting for its comment "The epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 indicates that most infections are spread through close contact, not airborne transmission"
1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes -
Replying to @MackayIM
Yep! So they cite themselves and a modelling paper. The modelling paper result is based on the assumption that presymptomatic individuals are more infectious which in turn is based largely on a single paper looking at 94 peoplehttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0869-5?fbclid=IwAR3x2cKnIDqZfFIpOn6R04KCFDkD7y2Fn1jVlQHC1G8Uq9iCt0w8H7OXmpk …
2 replies 1 retweet 10 likes -
The PNAS paper presents this as a finding, but really it's just a consequence of assuming based on the above paper that someone with e.g. mild symptoms would be more than twice as infectious as someone who is presymptomaticpic.twitter.com/QQhZT1jOCL
3 replies 0 retweets 7 likes -
Yes. This is how “facts” are made...keep going and you find an important but still speculative paper from the first three months turned into models turned into facts. It’s a legit phenomenon. Trust nothing but primary data and don’t trust that unless confirmed?!?!
2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
Yeh it's a really interesting point, because it appears that this CDC update is essentially based on the epidemiological investigation from January that used pneumonia as their benchmark for symptom onset
pic.twitter.com/kz4lmQ2zqV
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