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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. ɪᴀɴ ᴍ. ᴍᴀᴄᴋᴀʏ, ᴘʜᴅ  🦠 🤧 🧬 🥼 🦟 🧻 🧙‍♂️‏Verified account @MackayIM 22 Nov 2020

      ɪᴀɴ ᴍ. ᴍᴀᴄᴋᴀʏ, ᴘʜᴅ  🦠 🤧 🧬 🥼 🦟 🧻 🧙‍♂️ Retweeted Jose-Luis Jimenez

      Adds more to the storyhttps://twitter.com/jljcolorado/status/1330542699250929664 …

      ɪᴀɴ ᴍ. ᴍᴀᴄᴋᴀʏ, ᴘʜᴅ  🦠 🤧 🧬 🥼 🦟 🧻 🧙‍♂️ added,

      Jose-Luis JimenezVerified account @jljcolorado
      Most COVID transmission by people without symptoms - Ppl w/o symptoms don't cough and sneeze much - When talking, aerosols dominate over droplets by x100-2000 - Surfaces transmit inefficiently (per CDC) Hence **Aerosols dominating is the only way to explain transmission** https://twitter.com/jljcolorado/status/1330403511700426754 …
      Show this thread
      3 replies 34 retweets 114 likes
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 22 Nov 2020
      Replying to @MackayIM

      Man I love this sort of reference chain. The CNN article links to a CDC page which references a modelling study that assumed that presymptomatic people were more infectious based on one analysis of viral shedding from earlier this year

      2 replies 4 retweets 34 likes
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 22 Nov 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @MackayIM

      Also, don't know whether I'd agree. Epidemiological evidence doesn't really support the idea that the majority of transmission is from asymptomatic/presymptomatic people, although obviously a lot of uncertaintyhttps://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1003346 …

      1 reply 1 retweet 19 likes
    4. ɪᴀɴ ᴍ. ᴍᴀᴄᴋᴀʏ, ᴘʜᴅ  🦠 🤧 🧬 🥼 🦟 🧻 🧙‍♂️‏Verified account @MackayIM 22 Nov 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      I thought it was from the CDC advice which cites https://www.pnas.org/content/117/30/17513.long … and https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/scientific-brief-sars-cov-2.html …. The latter is interesting for its comment "The epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 indicates that most infections are spread through close contact, not airborne transmission" 🙄

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 22 Nov 2020
      Replying to @MackayIM

      Yep! So they cite themselves and a modelling paper. The modelling paper result is based on the assumption that presymptomatic individuals are more infectious which in turn is based largely on a single paper looking at 94 peoplehttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0869-5?fbclid=IwAR3x2cKnIDqZfFIpOn6R04KCFDkD7y2Fn1jVlQHC1G8Uq9iCt0w8H7OXmpk …

      2 replies 1 retweet 10 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 22 Nov 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @MackayIM

      The PNAS paper presents this as a finding, but really it's just a consequence of assuming based on the above paper that someone with e.g. mild symptoms would be more than twice as infectious as someone who is presymptomaticpic.twitter.com/QQhZT1jOCL

      7:52 PM - 22 Nov 2020
      • 7 Likes
      • Jennifer Steinbachs Johnny Rhee🔴 💧 Ian "Department of Diseasology" 🍩 Musgrave BavariaNephro Crunch Ilan Schwartz MD PhD Jake Syma
      3 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 22 Nov 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @MackayIM

          Amazingly, I've just noticed that even THIS paper isn't the actual evidence, because the finding that 44% of transmissions occurred during pre/asymptomatic periods is inferred based on the findings of yet another paper from way back in March!pic.twitter.com/HG2ZOWkoW6

          3 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
        3. Nima Yaghmaei‏ @NimaYaghmaei 22 Nov 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @MackayIM

          Fascinating detective work. Honestly, following you has been eye-opening on many occasions.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Dr. Lynora Saxinger  🇨🇦 *not checking mentions‏Verified account @AntibioticDoc 22 Nov 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @MackayIM

          Yes. This is how “facts” are made...keep going and you find an important but still speculative paper from the first three months turned into models turned into facts. It’s a legit phenomenon. Trust nothing but primary data and don’t trust that unless confirmed?!?!

          2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 22 Nov 2020
          Replying to @AntibioticDoc @MackayIM

          Yeh it's a really interesting point, because it appears that this CDC update is essentially based on the epidemiological investigation from January that used pneumonia as their benchmark for symptom onset 🤔pic.twitter.com/kz4lmQ2zqV

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation
        1. london  🇨🇦/ 🇵🇹‏ @boylondon402 22 Nov 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @MackayIM

          PNAS? Man you scientists...pic.twitter.com/c237j5dTbS

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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