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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 18 Nov 2020

      9/n The study also DOESN'T show that WEARING A MASK is ineffective. It showed that PROVIDING MASKS AND TELLING PEOPLE TO WEAR THEM was ineffective ON TOP OF SOCIAL DISTANCING

      4 replies 27 retweets 249 likes
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    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 18 Nov 2020

      10/n As the authors note, compliance was pretty poor. Lots of people were told to wear masks, but didn't Hard to say what this means for an individual wearing a mask 24/7pic.twitter.com/2vnN12EpVI

      4 replies 10 retweets 143 likes
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    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 18 Nov 2020

      11/n Moreover, there was a lot of social distancing already going on in Denmark at the time - this means that we can't really say that MASKS are ineffective but rather than masks didn't reduce infection numbers significantly on top of social distancingpic.twitter.com/ciSXYlyR3n

      5 replies 9 retweets 119 likes
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    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 18 Nov 2020

      12/n Again, this is not a minor point - masks may indeed not reduce infection numbers much during lockdown, but that doesn't say a lot about their effectiveness at other times

      8 replies 7 retweets 110 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 18 Nov 2020

      13/n Ok, a technical addition that is nevertheless important. The authors do not report correcting their result for the test sensitivity and specificity of their serology test

      1 reply 2 retweets 66 likes
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    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 18 Nov 2020

      14/n Serology tests are used to find antibodies, and they are (as all tests are) imperfect So, usually we correct for the imperfections to get a better estimate of the true number of people with antibodies

      1 reply 3 retweets 45 likes
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    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 18 Nov 2020

      15/n In this case, the study found that 1.8% of people in the mask group had antibodies, compared to 2.1% of people in the non-mask group But those are just the RAW figurespic.twitter.com/NtiZuV9Uml

      1 reply 3 retweets 51 likes
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    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 18 Nov 2020

      16/n If we use the Rogen-Gladen estimator, which is a pretty standard correction for test characteristics, we see instead that 1.59% and 1.95% of people in masks/no masks were probably infected, respectivelypic.twitter.com/d4rPZ5kJVw

      3 replies 4 retweets 59 likes
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    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 18 Nov 2020

      17/n This sounds like a minor point, but it actually isn't - if only 1.59%/1.95% of people were infected, it means that the study was underpowered for its main analysis, and thus we can't conclude much from the results

      1 reply 4 retweets 95 likes
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    10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 18 Nov 2020

      18/n Sorry, small correction - I used the final totals of 1.8% and 2.1% not the actual antibody numbers of 1.6% and 1.7% in that calculation. If you apply the correction properly, you get 1.56% masks and 2.09% non-masks

      2 replies 4 retweets 60 likes
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      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 18 Nov 2020

      19/n For some context, to find a difference this small, the study would've needed to recruit about 24,000 people, or 12,000 in each group, which is about 4x as big

      3:19 PM - 18 Nov 2020
      • 6 Retweets
      • 105 Likes
      • Emmet Kelly nutritionclarified Lars Samnøy Dr. Gésine L. Alders, PhD 😷 Moises Resende sacha Francis eec Dan Ostermayer
      11 replies 6 retweets 105 likes
        1. dowthebow‏ @dowthebow 18 Nov 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          A good thread, except that you want/expect the study to prove something it never intended to do. The question is about recommending or mandating masks in the battle with covid-19. The answer is that the differences are negligible

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Mark Howe‏ @MarkHow78121890 19 Nov 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          The big headache for any community study where the prevalence is low is getting recruitment. The variance and statistical noise make it extremely difficult to achieve statistical significance, even with PPE in a clinical setting.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. ImNotPartofThis‏ @PartofIm 19 Nov 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Correct, a statistically significant difference was not found by this study. Variation between the groups is not different than what would be expected due to randomness. There is no reason to speculate a larger study would yield a different conclusion.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Dan Grey‏ @dan_grey 19 Nov 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          So what's the conclusion here? That the study found a 25% risk reduction if people were told to wear masks, and that the study was too small for that result to be statistically significant?

          2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. 𝚃𝚘𝚖 𝙻𝚊𝚠𝚝𝚘𝚗  💙‏ @LawtonTri 19 Nov 2020
          Replying to @dan_grey @GidMK

          I think that's a reasonable conclusion - and also needs to be clear that they were only studying risk to the wearer. To be more dispassionate, and based on their powering: "the study found no evidence of a greater than 50% risk reduction to the wearer when advised to wear masks"

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. (((Jim Stein)))‏ @JamesStein18 19 Nov 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          @threadreaderapp unroll please

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Thread Reader App‏ @threadreaderapp 19 Nov 2020
          Replying to @JamesStein18

          Bonjour, you can read it here: @GidMK: So, The Big Mask study has been published, and I thought rather than expound on what the results DID show… https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1329171522485772288.html … Talk to you soon. 🤖

          0 replies 3 retweets 3 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. C. Niederstadt, MD, MPH‏ @Niederstadt1 19 Nov 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          @threadreaderapp unroll please

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Thread Reader App‏ @threadreaderapp 19 Nov 2020
          Replying to @Niederstadt1

          Hello, here is your unroll: @GidMK: So, The Big Mask study has been published, and I thought rather than expound on what the results DID show… https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1329171522485772288.html … Share this if you think it's interesting. 🤖

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Seb Adams‏ @sebling_ 19 Nov 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Does this study primarily present evidence of how masks protect the wearer, but does not provide evidence of how the mask protects others FROM the wearer? My ongoing understanding has been that masks' primary utility is to protect others. This seems under-discussed

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Klaus K‏ @KlausKblog 20 Nov 2020
          Replying to @sebling_ @GidMK

          1. It is not ethical to make trials where healthy people are exposed to risks of disease from sick people. 2. It's not possible to protect against non-existing risks. Healthy people don't transmit disease to others even though governments say they do.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NQTBlbx1Xjs …

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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