My new piece in the @Medium coronavirus blog looks at the vaccine results recently announced and what they really meanhttps://coronavirus.medium.com/an-epidemiologist-on-what-to-expect-from-a-covid-19-vaccine-c727f4bf32dc …
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It’s a very good post. From what I have understood, none of the current phase III trials is focusing on the issues you highlighted - prevention of severe disease or interruption of the transmission. Is that right?
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No that's not quite correct. They mostly use prevention of disease as their PRIMARY endpoint, and that's all that they can statistically demonstrate so far, but with the FULL numbers in the trials it should be possible to assess things like severe disease
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Will we get the full numbers before the vaccine is rolled out or will we have to wait for longer?
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It will be a few months from when the results come in to when the vaccine becomes available, so I'm pretty confident we'll know how effective it is before it is widely rolled out
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Do you expect the vaccine to be proven 90%+ effective in real world?
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I wouldn't say I expect it, but given the preliminary results as well as evidence from previous vaccine trials it seems quite likely that we'll have at least one vaccine that is in the range of 90% effective pretty soon
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Yesterday, you helped me and answered some questions. I have a few more, if you have a spare minute. Why do the participants in Oxford study take paracetamol for 24 hours after the shot?
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No idea, haven't read the protocol in detail
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If I had to guess, I would say it is probably to reduce the occurrence of mild headache after the shot (mild headaches are very common after all vaccines)
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