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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Nov 2020

      21/n Also, what's the impact of parents/carers getting sick and dying? Presumably this will have an outsized impact on the children it affects, which would cause (based on this model) large increases in YLL

      8 replies 3 retweets 71 likes
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    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Nov 2020

      22/n Ok, there's another HUGE problem with the study The findings are entirely based on the idea that an extra year of schooling reduces your risk of death by 25%, a figure reached by aggregating studies in a meta-analysis modelpic.twitter.com/va8PWXeBc3

      2 replies 3 retweets 39 likes
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    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Nov 2020

      23/n This number is the ENTIRE BASIS for the paper. If schooling reduces mortality by less than 25%, then the number of deaths caused by missed school days will drop as well And we have a problem, because this 25% figure is...wrong

      1 reply 3 retweets 38 likes
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    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Nov 2020

      24/n Firstly, we have these top 2 papers. Because they're from the US, they are more heavily weighted than the others (this is arbitrary, but whatever) Except the values for the second paper are flatly incorrectpic.twitter.com/VxC2Krkj3z

      1 reply 4 retweets 28 likes
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    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Nov 2020

      25/n Mazumder (2008) did not find a relative risk of 0.65 (0-1.3), it found an RR of 0.89 (0.74-1.04) The paper is here. I've read it very carefully and this appears to be the main finding from the author https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economic-perspectives/2008/2qtr2008-part1-mazumder …pic.twitter.com/1FY15LCXFe

      1 reply 2 retweets 28 likes
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    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Nov 2020

      26/n So the number is wrong, but this brings us to another issue - the two papers at the top that were double-weighted...are ON THE SAME DATASET This is a massive issuepic.twitter.com/trCaHySTYE

      2 replies 5 retweets 46 likes
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    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Nov 2020

      27/n You see, Lleras-Muney compiled an estimate based on a number of factors on the reduction in risk from 1 year of extra schooling. Mazumder, three years later, took that same database and re-analyzed it considering additional factors, and estimated a lower reductionpic.twitter.com/2pWUNsP6Qb

      1 reply 3 retweets 28 likes
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    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Nov 2020

      28/n However you slice it, it's inappropriate to just bung these two estimates together into a model and treat them as separate. I would argue that the Mazumder paper is probably a better estimate, but either way what they've done here is wrong

      1 reply 2 retweets 37 likes
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    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Nov 2020

      29/n If I re-run the meta-analysis they've purported to use with the correct numbers, we end up with this graph instead. A relative reduction in risk of death of 5% for every year of schooling This is A QUARTER of the estimate used in the studypic.twitter.com/xQk5F1tDzT

      2 replies 5 retweets 44 likes
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    10. 猫好きな人‏ @ValoisDuBins 16 Nov 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      Do you mean a fifth?

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Nov 2020
      Replying to @ValoisDuBins

      Yes lol, that was a typo

      8:54 PM - 16 Nov 2020
      • 2 Likes
      • Bahadir Simsek 猫好きな人
      0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes

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