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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Nov 2020

      20/n Another point I've been thinking about - the authors fail to consider the impact of an ongoing epidemic on school attendance. Lots of cases in the local area probably impacts schooling as well!

      3 replies 3 retweets 58 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Nov 2020

      21/n Also, what's the impact of parents/carers getting sick and dying? Presumably this will have an outsized impact on the children it affects, which would cause (based on this model) large increases in YLL

      8 replies 3 retweets 71 likes
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    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Nov 2020

      22/n Ok, there's another HUGE problem with the study The findings are entirely based on the idea that an extra year of schooling reduces your risk of death by 25%, a figure reached by aggregating studies in a meta-analysis modelpic.twitter.com/va8PWXeBc3

      2 replies 3 retweets 39 likes
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    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Nov 2020

      23/n This number is the ENTIRE BASIS for the paper. If schooling reduces mortality by less than 25%, then the number of deaths caused by missed school days will drop as well And we have a problem, because this 25% figure is...wrong

      1 reply 3 retweets 38 likes
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    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Nov 2020

      24/n Firstly, we have these top 2 papers. Because they're from the US, they are more heavily weighted than the others (this is arbitrary, but whatever) Except the values for the second paper are flatly incorrectpic.twitter.com/VxC2Krkj3z

      1 reply 4 retweets 28 likes
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    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Nov 2020

      25/n Mazumder (2008) did not find a relative risk of 0.65 (0-1.3), it found an RR of 0.89 (0.74-1.04) The paper is here. I've read it very carefully and this appears to be the main finding from the author https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economic-perspectives/2008/2qtr2008-part1-mazumder …pic.twitter.com/1FY15LCXFe

      1 reply 2 retweets 28 likes
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    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Nov 2020

      26/n So the number is wrong, but this brings us to another issue - the two papers at the top that were double-weighted...are ON THE SAME DATASET This is a massive issuepic.twitter.com/trCaHySTYE

      2 replies 5 retweets 46 likes
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    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Nov 2020

      27/n You see, Lleras-Muney compiled an estimate based on a number of factors on the reduction in risk from 1 year of extra schooling. Mazumder, three years later, took that same database and re-analyzed it considering additional factors, and estimated a lower reductionpic.twitter.com/2pWUNsP6Qb

      1 reply 3 retweets 28 likes
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    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Nov 2020

      28/n However you slice it, it's inappropriate to just bung these two estimates together into a model and treat them as separate. I would argue that the Mazumder paper is probably a better estimate, but either way what they've done here is wrong

      1 reply 2 retweets 37 likes
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    10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Nov 2020

      29/n If I re-run the meta-analysis they've purported to use with the correct numbers, we end up with this graph instead. A relative reduction in risk of death of 5% for every year of schooling This is A QUARTER of the estimate used in the studypic.twitter.com/xQk5F1tDzT

      2 replies 5 retweets 44 likes
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      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Nov 2020

      30/n So AT BEST assuming there are no other errors, the estimate of the years of life lost due to school closures should be divided by 5

      8:46 PM - 16 Nov 2020
      • 4 Retweets
      • 53 Likes
      • Ryan Hisner Mizzy T 🐝💙🇪🇺🏳️‍🌈 Michael Flohr a.k.a. Níthilhêr The Colourless Noam Leviatan נעם לויתן Ernesto de Bernardis, MD 🌉🇪🇺🌍🪐 Steffi (🏡) Trotclo Nicole Olson Elkind Women & Politics
      12 replies 4 retweets 53 likes
        1. MarcBurton‏ @MarcBurton 16 Nov 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Not many good things came from the pandemic, but finding this group of epidemiologists has been one of them for me. I will be here long after this has ended (?) for the astute insight and analysis. Thanks for all you do, Gid.

          0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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        1. Pfluft‏ @PloederlM 16 Nov 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Great review and debunking!

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. mike johansen‏ @mikejohansenmd 17 Nov 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          If you don’t read papers, they won’t be retracted.

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Nov 2020
          Replying to @mikejohansenmd

          Schroedinger's retraction

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Vicki Soloniuk‏ @vicsolo 17 Nov 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Unroll @threadreaderapp

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Thread Reader App‏ @threadreaderapp 17 Nov 2020
          Replying to @vicsolo

          Bonjour, you can read it here: @GidMK: Ok, so I've had a read of this paper (which has been all over the news) that says quite explicitly that closing… https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1327872367893176320.html … Have a good day. 🤖

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies
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        2. Vicki Soloniuk‏ @vicsolo 17 Nov 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Nicely done. Thanks. I need to read this again for better comprehension and I already know that this information will be useful.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Vicki Soloniuk‏ @vicsolo 17 Nov 2020
          Replying to @vicsolo @GidMK

          Should have said thread.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. (((Dorit Reiss)))‏Verified account @doritmi 17 Nov 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Thank you for going through this.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        2. Sarah Rasmussen‏ @SarahDRasmussen 17 Nov 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          So do you write the journal when you make these threads? Still trying to navigate the role of post-pub-review by Twitter v journal correspondence. Seems like most successful corrections/retractions I’ve seen were due to media/social media rather than official correspondence.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Sarah Rasmussen‏ @SarahDRasmussen 17 Nov 2020
          Replying to @SarahDRasmussen @GidMK

          Sarah Rasmussen Retweeted Sarah Rasmussen

          Misreporting data (.89 -> .65), duplicating data (US cases), & using diff methodology from stated (inverse-variance weighting) in a way that drastically impacts results... are big problems. But the Lancet C&AH editor didn’t care when reported all 3 such types of problems & more.https://twitter.com/SarahDRasmussen/status/1309437229622865920 …

          Sarah Rasmussen added,

          Sarah Rasmussen @SarahDRasmussen
          School closures + bad science (THREAD) Remember that 6 Apr Lancet C&AH systematic review on school closures--with that media-amplified "2-4%" statistic--by a UCL team led by RCPCH president + SAGE member Russell Viner? It has some serious problems. 1/ https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanchi/article/PIIS2352-4642(20)30095-X/fulltext …
          Show this thread
          1 reply 2 retweets 5 likes
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