13/n Where are the years of lost life due to ICU stays? Hospitalizations? Disability, mental health issues, avoided care due to full hospitals, etc etc etc???
-
Show this thread
-
14/n (This is also a problem for the YLL calculation for children missing school, FYI, it is FAR more complex than just missing educational attainment. So many potential things that are not included here!)
2 replies 3 retweets 102 likesShow this thread -
15/n Ultimately, what we get in the end - the "98.1% probability" figure - makes almost no sense at all. Even if the Argentinian study was applicable to the US situation, which it clearly isn't, the counterfactual is just inappropriate
1 reply 9 retweets 124 likesShow this thread -
16/n It may be possible to do a rigorous cost/benefit of school closures, but I really don't see how this can be considered one
1 reply 5 retweets 104 likesShow this thread -
17/n At best, what we've got here is a very rough inference about what the impact of school closures could possibly have been (as long as US kids in 2020 are the same as Argentinians in 1977), compared to an undercount of the impact of what COVID-19 probably was
4 replies 12 retweets 118 likesShow this thread -
18/n I should add - I am not saying that closing schools is necessarily a positive in this thread. What I AM saying, however, is that we could not possibly know whether it was or not from this paper
8 replies 12 retweets 214 likesShow this thread -
Health Nerd Retweeted Ilya Kashnitsky
19/n Many further criticisms of this paper that I missed in this also excellent thread. It appears that almost none of the assumptions in the paper make any sense at allhttps://twitter.com/ikashnitsky/status/1328121853970436100?s=20 …
Health Nerd added,
Ilya Kashnitsky @ikashnitskyI have a very strong opinion about this paper that went viral over the weekend. I cooled down a bit since coming across it yesterday and will try to refrain from strong wording. Here is my negative
post-pub peer-review THREAD
1/ pic.twitter.com/n0lu9STHVSShow this thread2 replies 14 retweets 99 likesShow this thread -
20/n Another point I've been thinking about - the authors fail to consider the impact of an ongoing epidemic on school attendance. Lots of cases in the local area probably impacts schooling as well!
3 replies 3 retweets 58 likesShow this thread -
21/n Also, what's the impact of parents/carers getting sick and dying? Presumably this will have an outsized impact on the children it affects, which would cause (based on this model) large increases in YLL
8 replies 3 retweets 71 likesShow this thread -
Replying to @GidMK
What kind of IFRs are you using here? Which schools have had a flurry of parental deaths?pic.twitter.com/17B63u93gl
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
I'm not providing an estimate, simply pointing out that this was an issue not even considered in the original paper that could make a fairly big difference
-
-
Replying to @GidMK
'Fairly big difference' would have to be quantified but given the IFRs for parents of school-age children...
0 replies 0 retweets 0 likesThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.