11/n Next, the authors did something odd. They decided to compare this to the DIRECT mortality from COVID-19. This means that they are only counting people who have died as a direct result of the diseasepic.twitter.com/MQiG2PapOc
Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him
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11/n Next, the authors did something odd. They decided to compare this to the DIRECT mortality from COVID-19. This means that they are only counting people who have died as a direct result of the diseasepic.twitter.com/MQiG2PapOc
12/n But, if we're comparing the total impact of missed education on children over a lifetime, this makes no sense. COVID-19 has many other harms, after all, some of which are disputed but many of which are easily attributable
13/n Where are the years of lost life due to ICU stays? Hospitalizations? Disability, mental health issues, avoided care due to full hospitals, etc etc etc???
14/n (This is also a problem for the YLL calculation for children missing school, FYI, it is FAR more complex than just missing educational attainment. So many potential things that are not included here!)
15/n Ultimately, what we get in the end - the "98.1% probability" figure - makes almost no sense at all. Even if the Argentinian study was applicable to the US situation, which it clearly isn't, the counterfactual is just inappropriate
16/n It may be possible to do a rigorous cost/benefit of school closures, but I really don't see how this can be considered one
17/n At best, what we've got here is a very rough inference about what the impact of school closures could possibly have been (as long as US kids in 2020 are the same as Argentinians in 1977), compared to an undercount of the impact of what COVID-19 probably was
18/n I should add - I am not saying that closing schools is necessarily a positive in this thread. What I AM saying, however, is that we could not possibly know whether it was or not from this paper
Health Nerd Retweeted Ilya Kashnitsky
19/n Many further criticisms of this paper that I missed in this also excellent thread. It appears that almost none of the assumptions in the paper make any sense at allhttps://twitter.com/ikashnitsky/status/1328121853970436100?s=20 …
Health Nerd added,
post-pub peer-review THREAD
1/ pic.twitter.com/n0lu9STHVSAttempt to quantify the assumptions make no sense - but the underlying theoretical intuition; that lockdown influences educational attainment which influences kids' futures and even years of life is quite reasonable, right?
Absolutely. I would not be surprised at all if there were negative secondary impacts of lockdowns on educational attainment and that these could influence YLL. I do suspect that the true effect would be orders of magnitude lower, although broader as well
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