But it does not explain *all* the variance in longevity, which is the implicit assumption of the *deterministic* 1 to 1 translation used in this @JAMANetworkOpen paper.
/13
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This association between educational attainment and longevity can't be used to directly translate ~2 months of lost education into ~2–3 months of lost expected years of life. Here are the core results of the paper again. /14pic.twitter.com/9fruPmMknp
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So this was the elephant in the room
It's the cornerstone idea of the paper that lost schooling years can be directly translated into lost years of life. And it is wrong.
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Based on these flawed calculations, the authors proceed to an even more questionable comparison of the YLL due to the lockdown school closures and YLL due to the direct COVID19 deaths through 30 May 2020. ~25m kids aged 5–11 vs 88k c19 deaths of the ongoing pandemic. Really? /16
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There are many more issues with the assumptions and the analysis. See many of them, in the linked thread by
@GidMK
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Through these very problematic (to frame it nicely) assumptions and correspondingly shaky results the authors arrive at the very big conclusions claiming that their paper provided sufficient evidence to keep the schools open. It did not. /18
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Such policy recommendations are
downright irresponsible
and, if heard and implemented, are
very dangerous
/19pic.twitter.com/4ePMe7iOOv
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Ilya Kashnitsky Retweeted Per Engzell
I need to mention: I came across this paper featured by
@ProfEmilyOster (61.2k followers) and re-tweeted non-critically by@pengzell who wrote a brilliant paper w/@MarkDVerhagen and@ArunFrey on the drop in school performance due to the pandemic
/20https://twitter.com/pengzell/status/1322796588746575872 …Ilya Kashnitsky added,
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Ilya Kashnitsky Retweeted Dimitri Christakis
It would be nice to hear your thoughts on my critical review. I'd also appreciate to hear from the authors:
@DAChristakis@drwilvancleve@Zimmermanfred Especially since the main author considers the piece one of the most important work ever /21 FINhttps://twitter.com/DAChristakis/status/1326922136095617024 …Ilya Kashnitsky added,
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Here is a bonus from eSupplement. This is how the crucial risk ratio of 0.75 was estimated from the 7 studies. Am I the only one seeing this averaging weird: 5 EU studies w/ odds close to 1 + 2 US studies w/ broad uncertainty = 0.75 ???
asking opinion of meta- researchers
/22pic.twitter.com/iJe7ZMpvw7
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Oh yeh that's odd. They artificially doubled the weight of the US study estimates with no real justification. Also, did they use a fixed effects model?
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Replying to @GidMK @ikashnitsky and
Ok, redid the analysis. I think they've actually just weighted it arbitrarily themselves, here's the random-effects model with inverse-variance weighting. Increases the RR from 0.75 to 0.95!pic.twitter.com/p6sUm6nc1D
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Replying to @GidMK @ikashnitsky and
This actually makes WAY more sense to me. An 0.75 reduction PER YEAR of schooling on all-cause mortality would mean that missing a few years of school would nearly halve your life expectancy
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