One thing I'm finding increasingly interesting is how many people will argue that lockdowns kill without citing any evidence at all that this is the case
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This isn't me saying that lockdowns are totally safe, but if they are as huge a public health problem as people claim this should be trivial to demonstrate
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Replying to @GidMK
I found this discussion about the effect of closing schools interesting and nuanced: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/12/school-wasnt-so-great-before-covid-either/616923/ … This article claims a large indirect effect but of course rests on a lot of strong assumptions https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2772834 … (I can't assess the validity of them)
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Replying to @justsomeoneDK @GidMK
Yeah, i thought of this to when I read the tweet from
@GidMK Schoolclosure is a clear effect from lockdowns. They will impact the kids education (a lot more in some countries) and that will very likely impact expected income and years of life1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @JacobGudiol @justsomeoneDK
So that's certainly a long-term effect that may occur, and we should be concerned about, but it's not on the order of the immediate catastrophe that has been constantly suggested without much evidence
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What do you mean by 'not on the order of immediate catastrophe'? With 2.5M YLL due to COVID and 5.3M YLL due to school closures (very rough estimates) one could definitely argue that school closures alone is a bigger catastrophy than COVID.
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Health Nerd Retweeted Health Nerd
That number does not mean a great dealhttps://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1327872367893176320?s=19 …
Health Nerd added,
Health NerdVerified account @GidMKOk, so I've had a read of this paper (which has been all over the news) that says quite explicitly that closing schools will probably cause more years of life lost than leaving them open in a pandemic Let's do some peer-review on twitter! 1/n https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1327791987014074369 … pic.twitter.com/ZxjMUXem5yShow this thread1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes -
I think 2 things can be true at once: a) there is no evidence showing immediate disasters of lockdown. b) In the future econometric methods will be able to show lockdown's substantial impact on kids education/future (as Zeynep has claimed as well)
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I think that is probably true, but I think the number that has been proposed thus far is a bit meaningless
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Yes the number is *very* uncertain. But there is a manmade disaster here which potentially much worse than COVID. And the double standards! For COVID, we've acted based on worst case scenarios. For schools, you use the uncertainty as an argument for not acting.
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