10/n It should also be noted that the impact of TEACHERS' STRIKES on ARGENTINIAN CHILDREN may not mean much when we're talking about American children, some % of whom could learn at home and thus were not explicitly missing class
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10.5/n (Also, whether the impact of teachers formally striking on children in the 70s is the same as missing days of in-person education during a pandemic in 2020...I would say probably not)
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11/n Next, the authors did something odd. They decided to compare this to the DIRECT mortality from COVID-19. This means that they are only counting people who have died as a direct result of the diseasepic.twitter.com/MQiG2PapOc
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12/n But, if we're comparing the total impact of missed education on children over a lifetime, this makes no sense. COVID-19 has many other harms, after all, some of which are disputed but many of which are easily attributable
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13/n Where are the years of lost life due to ICU stays? Hospitalizations? Disability, mental health issues, avoided care due to full hospitals, etc etc etc???
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14/n (This is also a problem for the YLL calculation for children missing school, FYI, it is FAR more complex than just missing educational attainment. So many potential things that are not included here!)
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15/n Ultimately, what we get in the end - the "98.1% probability" figure - makes almost no sense at all. Even if the Argentinian study was applicable to the US situation, which it clearly isn't, the counterfactual is just inappropriate
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16/n It may be possible to do a rigorous cost/benefit of school closures, but I really don't see how this can be considered one
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17/n At best, what we've got here is a very rough inference about what the impact of school closures could possibly have been (as long as US kids in 2020 are the same as Argentinians in 1977), compared to an undercount of the impact of what COVID-19 probably was
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Replying to @GidMK
What percentage of kids are home schooled during normal times? Is there an anti-homeschool movement because of the years of life those kids will lose? (My in-laws kids were entirely homeschooled, they're at uni now.)
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Actually a very good point. Another issue in comparing Argentina to the US I suspect!
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Replying to @GidMK
Yeah. Other things too. Like ppl who did lousy at school and as young adults found their thing & were motivated to learn what they needed. Or kids who miss a year due to cancer or whatever. Or have hippie parents & sail around the world for a yr. Things happen, kids catch up.
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