The first rule of epidemiology: check your denominator 2nd rule: check your denominator again It can explain an amazing number of the differences that people are observing this year for COVID-19
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Can you please explain a little more so may people such as myself can understand? Thanks!
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Sure - usually, when you compare two things, you're comparing two proportions. In this case, we're comparing what happens to people with COVID-19 over time, in particular how many of those who get infected die
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Oh how I wish everyone understood this!
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An example of this is that two heads of separate ITUs have told me that the mortality in ITU is much higher this time around.
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Is it a safe calculation - based on historical events - to say that the numbers we are seeing now, could be applied to the initial outbreak to better determine how many actual cases there were, rather than the looking at it the opposite way to determine it's getting less deadly?
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I would think that there is also a high likelihood of many vulnerable people getting killed in the initial outbreak, that may also skew the numbers higher at the onset. This should show up in the demographic outcomes though - more older people dying initially vs now.
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