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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 12 Nov 2020
      Replying to @rubiconcapital_ @DFisman @BillHanage

      This is the deaths from Ontario public health. Ignoring the reporting lags, there is a pretty clear exponential increase there. I suspect if you averaged the weekly increase even with the reporting lag it would be an exponential functionpic.twitter.com/m4NMhysfSS

      1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
    2. Kelly Brown‏ @rubiconcapital_ 12 Nov 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @DFisman @BillHanage

      I see a epidemic Gompertz curve and a hump topping off our herd immunity prior to going seasonally endemic. If you see something else (even with reporting lags) the I want whatever you're smoking !

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 12 Nov 2020
      Replying to @rubiconcapital_ @DFisman @BillHanage

      I say this without malice - you have absolutely no clue whatsoever what you are talking about. You are misusing every term you have used there, it is a garbled sentence that literally doesn't make sense

      3 replies 1 retweet 25 likes
    4. Kelly Brown‏ @rubiconcapital_ 12 Nov 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @DFisman @BillHanage

      I am intimately familiar with the chart you posted. Here is the 7-day trailing average of deaths by original symptom/episode date vs. the death reported date. Do you see it?pic.twitter.com/MTVSO9byKq

      3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 12 Nov 2020
      Replying to @rubiconcapital_

      ...the clear reporting lag? Yes, that's officially stated by the public health authority I believe. It's like the Sweden figures - every fool makes a graph and points out that deaths are falling once a week because they don't report deaths within 14 days well

      2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
    6. Kelly Brown‏ @rubiconcapital_ 12 Nov 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      The height of the blue line (symptom onset dates that eventually resulted in deaths) is roughly the same (certainly not exponentially higher) at Oct 30 vs Sept 30, which covers the 14-day reporting period. Honestly, what am I missing?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 12 Nov 2020
      Replying to @rubiconcapital_

      Quickly eyeballing, looks like it's gone up by ~20% in that time. The reporting lag would also include the 29/30th, and symptom reporting is not a perfect measure. Would be more useful to look at day of death than day of reported symptoms

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Kelly Brown‏ @rubiconcapital_ 12 Nov 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      Agree date of death vs. report would tell better story (date of death not published in daily CSV). Anyway, thanks for the debate and we can leave it there. My prediction is that natural herd immunity is nigh; heterogeneity was not included in epi models, and we see this soon.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 12 Nov 2020
      Replying to @rubiconcapital_

      Look, again that is a statement that makes no sense whatsoever. If cases are increasing, herd immunity by definition cannot be "nigh". I honestly think you should look up some of this terminology before throwing it around - read an epi textbook!

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    10. Kelly Brown‏ @rubiconcapital_ 12 Nov 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      It doesn't take an epidemiologist to know we are not all identical dots bouncing around in the same box. We all have different immune susceptibility and contact susceptibility and this simply is not being built into public policy epi models and that is a fact.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 12 Nov 2020
      Replying to @rubiconcapital_

      Modelling herd immunity is a fascinating and challenging topic, and it's true that some lower thresholds such as 40-50% may be viable in a fixed population. We have, however, now seen several examples of cities reaching above that threshold

      8:25 PM - 12 Nov 2020
      • 1 Like
      • Corax The Raven
      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. Kelly Brown‏ @rubiconcapital_ 12 Nov 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Like NYC where infections may be > 30% of pop. In close contact areas (like a cruise ship!) epidemic spread can easily *overshoot* herd immunity thresholds. This is obvious. Certain pops will see outbreaks. But it is morally/ethically/intellectually bankrupt to assume no hetero.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 12 Nov 2020
          Replying to @rubiconcapital_

          Mmmm, I'd argue it is intellectually bankrupt to argue about terms without even to bother looking them up. That being said, there have been many efforts to include heterogeneity into HI estimates - as I said, for a fixed population 40-50% is definitely reasonable for COVID

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan 12 Nov 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @rubiconcapital_

          Atomsk's Sanakan Retweeted Atomsk's Sanakan

          Is he really claiming Ontario achieved herd immunity? To borrow his phrase: "I want whatever [he's] smoking" It's like these non-expert contrarians can't think of things other than herd immunity, that limit case increases (ex: public health interventions)https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1327086087655878657 …

          Atomsk's Sanakan added,

          Atomsk's Sanakan @AtomsksSanakan
          Re: "This thread will go over further examples of higher infection rates in smaller populations, supporting the argument below on how the herd immunity threshold (HIT) is relatively high" Monteria, Colombia: 55% https://academic.oup.com/ofid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/ofid/ofaa550/5977863 … pic.twitter.com/FeNK8ywLKv
          Show this thread
          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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