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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Kelly Brown‏ @rubiconcapital_ 12 Nov 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @DFisman @BillHanage

      That's in the epidemic phase with the most susceptible having now passed. What about the now more endemic phase? And by the way, Canada has had 2 (two) <19 covid deaths, and every year we have at least 10 that we know of of flu.

      3 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 12 Nov 2020
      Replying to @rubiconcapital_ @DFisman @BillHanage

      The first statement is total nonsense. Canada is, I believe, currently experiencing a massive epidemic. As to the second - quite interesting. I imagine that will increase now given the vast number of cases now, which is quite sad

      2 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
    3. Kelly Brown‏ @rubiconcapital_ 12 Nov 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @DFisman @BillHanage

      Casedemic, actually. I believe our PCR thresholds are incredibly high, and deaths per day in Ontario are .11 per 100,000 with 60%+ in LTC while society is in ruin.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 12 Nov 2020
      Replying to @rubiconcapital_ @DFisman @BillHanage

      The 'casedemic' idea is a myth spread by people who have absolutely no idea what they're talking abouthttps://coronavirus.medium.com/an-epidemiologist-on-what-to-expect-from-a-covid-19-vaccine-c727f4bf32dc …

      2 replies 1 retweet 18 likes
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 12 Nov 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @rubiconcapital_ and

      Oh, apologies, wrong piece. Here's the correct one on the 'casedemic' nonsensehttps://gidmk.medium.com/there-is-no-casedemic-c6b0ba8b9fec …

      2 replies 1 retweet 12 likes
    6. Kelly Brown‏ @rubiconcapital_ 12 Nov 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @DFisman @BillHanage

      I don't care what the PCR test is turning over. Ontario, a province of 13.5m people, is experiencing what looks like a plateau of 15 covid deaths per day, 10 of which are non-community LTC.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 12 Nov 2020
      Replying to @rubiconcapital_ @DFisman @BillHanage

      This is the deaths from Ontario public health. Ignoring the reporting lags, there is a pretty clear exponential increase there. I suspect if you averaged the weekly increase even with the reporting lag it would be an exponential functionpic.twitter.com/m4NMhysfSS

      1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
    8. Kelly Brown‏ @rubiconcapital_ 12 Nov 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @DFisman @BillHanage

      I see a epidemic Gompertz curve and a hump topping off our herd immunity prior to going seasonally endemic. If you see something else (even with reporting lags) the I want whatever you're smoking !

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 12 Nov 2020
      Replying to @rubiconcapital_ @DFisman @BillHanage

      I say this without malice - you have absolutely no clue whatsoever what you are talking about. You are misusing every term you have used there, it is a garbled sentence that literally doesn't make sense

      3 replies 1 retweet 25 likes
    10. Kelly Brown‏ @rubiconcapital_ 12 Nov 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @DFisman @BillHanage

      I am intimately familiar with the chart you posted. Here is the 7-day trailing average of deaths by original symptom/episode date vs. the death reported date. Do you see it?pic.twitter.com/MTVSO9byKq

      3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 12 Nov 2020
      Replying to @rubiconcapital_

      ...the clear reporting lag? Yes, that's officially stated by the public health authority I believe. It's like the Sweden figures - every fool makes a graph and points out that deaths are falling once a week because they don't report deaths within 14 days well

      8:03 PM - 12 Nov 2020
      • 6 Likes
      • Dang and Blast! Jonathan Cronk James Pitt Fatima Tokhmafshan (she/elle) 🇨🇦🏳️‍🌈 猫好きな人 Amber Jans
      2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 12 Nov 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @rubiconcapital_

          Anyway, this is getting a bit pointless. If I were to start talking gobbledygook about investments, I imagine you would (rightly) laugh at my ignorance. That is what you sound like to epidemiologists right now 👍

          1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
        3. Fatima Tokhmafshan (she/elle)  🇨🇦 🏳️‍🌈‏Verified account @DeNovo_Fatima 12 Nov 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @rubiconcapital_

          @GidMK I had a similar back-&-forth w/ yet another economist who fancied himself an epidemiological modeller! It ended w/ him accusing me of attacking his masculinity & whiteness! 🤣 Yours seem to have ended more civilly! Then again women get gaslighted more aggressively!

          2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Kelly Brown‏ @rubiconcapital_ 12 Nov 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          The height of the blue line (symptom onset dates that eventually resulted in deaths) is roughly the same (certainly not exponentially higher) at Oct 30 vs Sept 30, which covers the 14-day reporting period. Honestly, what am I missing?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 12 Nov 2020
          Replying to @rubiconcapital_

          Quickly eyeballing, looks like it's gone up by ~20% in that time. The reporting lag would also include the 29/30th, and symptom reporting is not a perfect measure. Would be more useful to look at day of death than day of reported symptoms

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies

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