Here is the major take home:pic.twitter.com/iXwXeZTK21
Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him
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Here is the major take home:pic.twitter.com/iXwXeZTK21
We digitized the figure from @GidMK @BillHanage et al’s brilliant work (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v7 …) and overlaid Ontario age specific IFR. Our axis labels have been chopped off.pic.twitter.com/1uzz1wly0m
What do you think of this comparison between COVID and Flu? (This is my avg data of a number of countries including Canada similar to the chart above)pic.twitter.com/aY7z3tjwan
Eyeballing it, looks like you're comparing influenza CFR with a very low COVID-19 IFR. That prediction of IFR is lower than even the lowest I've seen modelled, if it only reaches 1% at age 90
My chart is not IFR. My chart is deaths per 100k. Flu is total burden in US estimated by CDC, not actual surveillance, and confirmed by other jurisdictions. To me the relative slopes of the curve are more instructive than absolute positions. They're the same in every country.
I don't get the obsession with protecting young kids (or anyone below 50 for that matter) when they are at less mortality risk of COVID than flu and weak evidence to support kids transfer to parents/teachers (as opposed to vice versa)
Ah, I see the issue. You're comparing 12 months of deaths inferred from pneumonia and other ICD codes with what, 3 months (?) of deaths recorded after PCR testing. Very uninformative as a comparison, mostly meaningless
And the study is determining an IFR using data to May 10th? That's any less process bankrupt? As I said, what's clear is the age stratified differences in mortality between flu and covid. The young are not at risk. How many ont Covid deaths under 50 since the original epidemic?
It is far less meaningless, because it is determining how many died of those infected, not comparing two completely different statistics in a meaningless way. Younger people are at a much lower risk if infected, but at most ages still much deadlier than influenza
How many pediatric flu deaths happen in Canada each year vs how many pediatric Covid deaths have we seen so far? (Granted Covid is only ~9 months.)
No idea. I do know the stats for the US, where about double the kids <18 have died from COVID-19 than influenza this year, about 2x the infants, and about 10x as many people <50
That's in the epidemic phase with the most susceptible having now passed. What about the now more endemic phase? And by the way, Canada has had 2 (two) <19 covid deaths, and every year we have at least 10 that we know of of flu.
The first statement is total nonsense. Canada is, I believe, currently experiencing a massive epidemic. As to the second - quite interesting. I imagine that will increase now given the vast number of cases now, which is quite sad
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