New with Steve Drews and Sheila O’Brien from @CANBloodServ and the amazing @AshTuite
Infection fatality ratio for covid-19 in Ontario. Tldr: it’s around 1% after excluding longterm care deaths, same estimate as in many other countries.https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.09.20223396v1 …
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Here is the major take home:pic.twitter.com/iXwXeZTK21
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We digitized the figure from
@GidMK@BillHanage et al’s brilliant work (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v7 …) and overlaid Ontario age specific IFR. Our axis labels have been chopped off.pic.twitter.com/1uzz1wly0m
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What do you think of this comparison between COVID and Flu? (This is my avg data of a number of countries including Canada similar to the chart above)pic.twitter.com/aY7z3tjwan
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Eyeballing it, looks like you're comparing influenza CFR with a very low COVID-19 IFR. That prediction of IFR is lower than even the lowest I've seen modelled, if it only reaches 1% at age 90
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My chart is not IFR. My chart is deaths per 100k. Flu is total burden in US estimated by CDC, not actual surveillance, and confirmed by other jurisdictions. To me the relative slopes of the curve are more instructive than absolute positions. They're the same in every country.
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Replying to @rubiconcapital_ @GidMK and
I don't get the obsession with protecting young kids (or anyone below 50 for that matter) when they are at less mortality risk of COVID than flu and weak evidence to support kids transfer to parents/teachers (as opposed to vice versa)
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Ah, I see the issue. You're comparing 12 months of deaths inferred from pneumonia and other ICD codes with what, 3 months (?) of deaths recorded after PCR testing. Very uninformative as a comparison, mostly meaningless
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And the study is determining an IFR using data to May 10th? That's any less process bankrupt? As I said, what's clear is the age stratified differences in mortality between flu and covid. The young are not at risk. How many ont Covid deaths under 50 since the original epidemic?
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It is far less meaningless, because it is determining how many died of those infected, not comparing two completely different statistics in a meaningless way. Younger people are at a much lower risk if infected, but at most ages still much deadlier than influenza
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How many pediatric flu deaths happen in Canada each year vs how many pediatric Covid deaths have we seen so far? (Granted Covid is only ~9 months.)
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No idea. I do know the stats for the US, where about double the kids <18 have died from COVID-19 than influenza this year, about 2x the infants, and about 10x as many people <50
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