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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. David Fisman‏Verified account @DFisman 12 Nov 2020

      New with Steve Drews and Sheila O’Brien from @CANBloodServ and the amazing @AshTuite Infection fatality ratio for covid-19 in Ontario. Tldr: it’s around 1% after excluding longterm care deaths, same estimate as in many other countries.https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.09.20223396v1 …

      8 replies 19 retweets 85 likes
      Show this thread
    2. David Fisman‏Verified account @DFisman 12 Nov 2020

      Here is the major take home:pic.twitter.com/iXwXeZTK21

      6 replies 2 retweets 27 likes
      Show this thread
    3. David Fisman‏Verified account @DFisman 12 Nov 2020

      We digitized the figure from @GidMK @BillHanage et al’s brilliant work (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v7 …) and overlaid Ontario age specific IFR. Our axis labels have been chopped off.pic.twitter.com/1uzz1wly0m

      2 replies 2 retweets 12 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Kelly Brown‏ @rubiconcapital_ 12 Nov 2020
      Replying to @DFisman @GidMK @BillHanage

      What do you think of this comparison between COVID and Flu? (This is my avg data of a number of countries including Canada similar to the chart above)pic.twitter.com/aY7z3tjwan

      3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 12 Nov 2020
      Replying to @rubiconcapital_ @DFisman @BillHanage

      Eyeballing it, looks like you're comparing influenza CFR with a very low COVID-19 IFR. That prediction of IFR is lower than even the lowest I've seen modelled, if it only reaches 1% at age 90

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
    6. Kelly Brown‏ @rubiconcapital_ 12 Nov 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @DFisman @BillHanage

      My chart is not IFR. My chart is deaths per 100k. Flu is total burden in US estimated by CDC, not actual surveillance, and confirmed by other jurisdictions. To me the relative slopes of the curve are more instructive than absolute positions. They're the same in every country.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Kelly Brown‏ @rubiconcapital_ 12 Nov 2020
      Replying to @rubiconcapital_ @GidMK and

      I don't get the obsession with protecting young kids (or anyone below 50 for that matter) when they are at less mortality risk of COVID than flu and weak evidence to support kids transfer to parents/teachers (as opposed to vice versa)

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 12 Nov 2020
      Replying to @rubiconcapital_ @DFisman @BillHanage

      Ah, I see the issue. You're comparing 12 months of deaths inferred from pneumonia and other ICD codes with what, 3 months (?) of deaths recorded after PCR testing. Very uninformative as a comparison, mostly meaningless

      6:53 PM - 12 Nov 2020
      • 12 Likes
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      2 replies 0 retweets 12 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Kelly Brown‏ @rubiconcapital_ 12 Nov 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @DFisman @BillHanage

          And the study is determining an IFR using data to May 10th? That's any less process bankrupt? As I said, what's clear is the age stratified differences in mortality between flu and covid. The young are not at risk. How many ont Covid deaths under 50 since the original epidemic?

          3 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 12 Nov 2020
          Replying to @rubiconcapital_ @DFisman @BillHanage

          It is far less meaningless, because it is determining how many died of those infected, not comparing two completely different statistics in a meaningless way. Younger people are at a much lower risk if infected, but at most ages still much deadlier than influenza

          1 reply 1 retweet 8 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. Atomsk's Sanakan‏ @AtomsksSanakan 12 Nov 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @rubiconcapital_ and

          Re: "Very uninformative as a comparison, mostly meaningless" And they're not even doing it correctly. Just ideologically-motivated nonsense; I'm getting tired of it from the non-expert 'tech bros'. https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1327087089104596993 … https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S1473-3099%2820%2930484-9 …pic.twitter.com/SK4VJKLxaQ

          0 replies 1 retweet 1 like
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