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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Zachary Lipton‏Verified account @zacharylipton 11 Nov 2020

      Every time I think I have a handle on WTF might be going on with Case Fatality Rate, the situation gets weirder. Sometimes I wonder if we're looking at the same disease anymore. CFR changes between first and second peaks seem attributable to testing, now I'm at a loss.pic.twitter.com/rtpvncelVB

      5 replies 0 retweets 11 likes
    2. This Tweet is unavailable.
    3. Uri Shalit‏ @ShalitUri 11 Nov 2020
      Replying to @alex_peys @zacharylipton

      Uri Shalit Retweeted Health Nerd

      Just pointing out there’s some criticism of two of those “IFR is down” papers:https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1318776109710729217 …

      Uri Shalit added,

      Health NerdVerified account @GidMK
      This article raises some interesting points. Have death rates from COVID-19 gone done since March? https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/10/20/925441975/studies-point-to-big-drop-in-covid-19-death-rates …
      Show this thread
      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 Nov 2020
      Replying to @ShalitUri @alex_peys @zacharylipton

      I think it's best to consider changes in CFR by looking first at the denominator. What has changed that might explain these differences?

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    5. Zachary Lipton‏Verified account @zacharylipton 11 Nov 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @ShalitUri @alex_peys

      Agree, the problem is there are many explanations, the most natural ones seem insufficient and the other ones seem difficult to verify.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 Nov 2020
      Replying to @zacharylipton @ShalitUri @alex_peys

      In this case, I think changes in testing are probably sufficient to explain most of what has happened. Deaths are a lagging indicator, so we would expect them to increase quite a bit over the coming month or two

      9:19 PM - 11 Nov 2020
      • 1 Like
      • Uri Shalit
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. Zachary Lipton‏Verified account @zacharylipton 11 Nov 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @ShalitUri @alex_peys

          Strong disagree. Paper draft forthcoming.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 Nov 2020
          Replying to @zacharylipton @ShalitUri @alex_peys

          I haven't looked at specific states (although I know some people who have), but I think for the US as a whole given the serological data and IFR/age, we can estimate that the initial wave was probably broadly similar to what's happened more recently

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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