Excellent new study on seroprevalence in Sydney using convenience samples estimates 0.09% (0.04-0.32%) infected "our study provides robust evidence that there was limited community transmission...of COVID-19"https://www.mja.com.au/journal/2020/seroprevalence-sars-cov-2-specific-antibodies-sydney-australia-following-first …
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Also, massive hats off to the authors for acknowledging that the data were not sufficient to make calculations and then JUST NOT DOING ITpic.twitter.com/NyjTzRluA0
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I agree wholeheartedly with their assessment FYI, I don't think you can reasonably calculate the IFR of COVID-19 in Australia from either of the seroprevalence studies released thus far
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Apologies, I should say in the original tweet that depending on the prior used they either estimated 0.15% or 0.09% (which would correspond to between ~4-7,000 cases in Sydney)pic.twitter.com/lh6g0wZzTK
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And while we can't apply these numbers to the community directly, I think it's still interesting to note that it implies that the vast majority of COVID-19 cases have been captured in NSW by testing/contact tracing (at least 60%!)
Impressive @NSWHealth
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