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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 9 Nov 2020

    A lot of people are asking the question, so I think it's useful to point out that a vaccine that prevents 90% of infections would be sufficient for herd immunity in most cases

    2:00 PM - 9 Nov 2020
    • 11 Retweets
    • 103 Likes
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    3 replies 11 retweets 103 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 9 Nov 2020

        There are, of course, HUGE caveats here: - protection must be long-lasting - must protect against infection, not just symptoms - vaccination rate has to be quite high

        4 replies 3 retweets 38 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 9 Nov 2020

        Nevertheless, if a vaccine does stop 90% of infections, and we can vaccinate 90%+ of the population, then you'd have about 80% of people immune to the disease which is well above any herd immunity threshold for COVID-19

        2 replies 3 retweets 44 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 9 Nov 2020

        It remains to be seen whether Pfizer's vaccine - or any of the other candidates - can meet this fairly high threshold for efficacy, but if they can then yes vaccine-induced herd immunity would certainly be on the table

        1 reply 1 retweet 37 likes
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      5. End of conversation
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      2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 9 Nov 2020

        Those two statements are contradictory. It is rare that a single paper provides a definitive answer to such a broad question. Nevertheless, case numbers for vaccine-preventable disease demonstrate the effect quite well across the world http://www9.health.gov.au/cda/source/cda-index.cfm …

        1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Marco Piani‏ @Marco_Piani 9 Nov 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        From what I have understood, the claimed 90% is against COVID-19, not infection from the virus. That is, the reduction is in symptomatic infections.

        1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
      3. Jin Russell‏ @DrJinRussell 9 Nov 2020
        Replying to @Marco_Piani @GidMK

        Do we know what proportion of truly asymptomatic infections can transmit though? I don’t know if I’ve seen studies on this.

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. Kenneth Vaughan‏ @KenVaughanSoc 9 Nov 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        Considering what we know about immunity, does the speed of spread among the population refusing to be vaccinated at all contribute to the percentage of the population we would need vaccinated? Obviously this alone is a terrible idea.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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