So, they predict 500k deaths in the US by Feb 2021, but if 95% of people wear masks in public, this goes down by just under 35%
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But is this reasonable? The study uses the results from two previous systematic reviews that almost exclusively looked at data from SARS and MERS for mask-wearing. Are studies like the below ones reflective of the risk of transmission for people in public for COVID-19?pic.twitter.com/neUI9nztOF
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Even if we accept that, on average, face masks will prevent 35% of infections in healthcare professionals from MERS/SARS and influenza, what in the world does that mean for COVID-19?
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Given that the main result is a direct consequence of this assumption for mask-wearing, I think it's worth noting how flimsy the evidence is!
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Anyway, I suspect that 95% mask-wearing in public would have a relatively small impact on the eventual death toll from COVID-19 given that most transmission happens in non-public places such as workplaces, schools, universities, and at home
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Replying to @GidMK
While I have no doubt your analysis of that paper is correct, isn't this last comment a version of survivorship bias?
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Replying to @medic_southside
Nah, it's true regardless of masking, like in Sydney where mask wearing is rare!
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Replying to @GidMK
Never been to Sydney, but does its mass transport system compare with cities like London, Madrid and New York?
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Replying to @medic_southside
I've been to all 4 and I'd say yes-ish. Sydney is more spread out, maybe more Barcelona than Madrid
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Replying to @GidMK
Fair enough. Still not that convinced with the argument that masks don't work because people catch COVID in situations where they're not wearing masks, though
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Not what I'm saying. Masks work, but wearing them only in low-risk public situations rather than high-risk private ones is unlikely to vastly reduce transmission/deaths
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Replying to @GidMK
That's fair enough, but aren't there high(er) risk public situations like busy tube trains and crowded shops? We also see mass gatherings outdoors - some with lots of masks, others with very few. Does it make a difference?
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