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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Nov 2020

      Health Nerd Retweeted NEJM Journal Watch

      Sigh. An interesting study, but such a ridiculous prediction. The authors estimated the relative risk of wearing a mask to not based on studies mostly conducted in healthcare workers during SARS/MERS, and then extrapolated this directly to the UShttps://twitter.com/JWatch/status/1324441354378780672 …

      Health Nerd added,

      NEJM Journal Watch @JWatch
      According to an estimate by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, universal mask wearing could save 130,000 U.S. lives in the next 4 months. https://jwat.ch/3l3uhw3  #COVID19 pic.twitter.com/fRv5HSFoX5
      1 reply 7 retweets 55 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Nov 2020

      In fact, the reduction in deaths that's cited here as the main outcome is a direct result of the relative risk (0.65) that the authors found for mask-use compared to no mask-use when aggregating together studies on maskspic.twitter.com/2E9Vl8biHE

      1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Nov 2020

      So, they predict 500k deaths in the US by Feb 2021, but if 95% of people wear masks in public, this goes down by just under 35%

      3 replies 2 retweets 17 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Nov 2020

      But is this reasonable? The study uses the results from two previous systematic reviews that almost exclusively looked at data from SARS and MERS for mask-wearing. Are studies like the below ones reflective of the risk of transmission for people in public for COVID-19?pic.twitter.com/neUI9nztOF

      1 reply 1 retweet 10 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Nov 2020

      Even if we accept that, on average, face masks will prevent 35% of infections in healthcare professionals from MERS/SARS and influenza, what in the world does that mean for COVID-19?

      1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Nov 2020

      Given that the main result is a direct consequence of this assumption for mask-wearing, I think it's worth noting how flimsy the evidence is!

      1 reply 0 retweets 16 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Nov 2020

      Anyway, I suspect that 95% mask-wearing in public would have a relatively small impact on the eventual death toll from COVID-19 given that most transmission happens in non-public places such as workplaces, schools, universities, and at home

      5 replies 4 retweets 25 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Michael Palmer‏ @medic_southside 8 Nov 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      While I have no doubt your analysis of that paper is correct, isn't this last comment a version of survivorship bias?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Nov 2020
      Replying to @medic_southside

      Nah, it's true regardless of masking, like in Sydney where mask wearing is rare!

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Michael Palmer‏ @medic_southside 9 Nov 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      Never been to Sydney, but does its mass transport system compare with cities like London, Madrid and New York?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 9 Nov 2020
      Replying to @medic_southside

      I've been to all 4 and I'd say yes-ish. Sydney is more spread out, maybe more Barcelona than Madrid

      12:11 AM - 9 Nov 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Michael Palmer‏ @medic_southside 9 Nov 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Fair enough. Still not that convinced with the argument that masks don't work because people catch COVID in situations where they're not wearing masks, though

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 9 Nov 2020
          Replying to @medic_southside

          Not what I'm saying. Masks work, but wearing them only in low-risk public situations rather than high-risk private ones is unlikely to vastly reduce transmission/deaths

          1 reply 1 retweet 0 likes
        4. Show replies

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