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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Nov 2020

      Health Nerd Retweeted NEJM Journal Watch

      Sigh. An interesting study, but such a ridiculous prediction. The authors estimated the relative risk of wearing a mask to not based on studies mostly conducted in healthcare workers during SARS/MERS, and then extrapolated this directly to the UShttps://twitter.com/JWatch/status/1324441354378780672 …

      Health Nerd added,

      NEJM Journal Watch @JWatch
      According to an estimate by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, universal mask wearing could save 130,000 U.S. lives in the next 4 months. https://jwat.ch/3l3uhw3  #COVID19 pic.twitter.com/fRv5HSFoX5
      1 reply 7 retweets 55 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Nov 2020

      In fact, the reduction in deaths that's cited here as the main outcome is a direct result of the relative risk (0.65) that the authors found for mask-use compared to no mask-use when aggregating together studies on maskspic.twitter.com/2E9Vl8biHE

      1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Nov 2020

      So, they predict 500k deaths in the US by Feb 2021, but if 95% of people wear masks in public, this goes down by just under 35%

      3 replies 2 retweets 17 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Nov 2020

      But is this reasonable? The study uses the results from two previous systematic reviews that almost exclusively looked at data from SARS and MERS for mask-wearing. Are studies like the below ones reflective of the risk of transmission for people in public for COVID-19?pic.twitter.com/neUI9nztOF

      1 reply 1 retweet 10 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Nov 2020

      Even if we accept that, on average, face masks will prevent 35% of infections in healthcare professionals from MERS/SARS and influenza, what in the world does that mean for COVID-19?

      1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Nov 2020

      Given that the main result is a direct consequence of this assumption for mask-wearing, I think it's worth noting how flimsy the evidence is!

      1 reply 0 retweets 16 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Nov 2020

      Anyway, I suspect that 95% mask-wearing in public would have a relatively small impact on the eventual death toll from COVID-19 given that most transmission happens in non-public places such as workplaces, schools, universities, and at home

      5:20 PM - 8 Nov 2020
      • 4 Retweets
      • 25 Likes
      • JayMan Bogdan Enache Andrew Kunzmann Ola Abrahamsson Sueytonius ሁሉም ያልፋል። Eugenio de Aviraneta Not a useful idiot Kevin Stone
      5 replies 4 retweets 25 likes
        1. Bob Blaskiewicz‏ @rjblaskiewicz 8 Nov 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          pic.twitter.com/Jnymg1HGuD

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Loretta Torrago‏ @Loretta_Torrago 8 Nov 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Can you explain? My first reaction is: you have to get it somewhere to bring it home. If 1 person brings it home to 4 people that live there, that explains why *most* transmission occurs at home. But that scenario suggests, to my mind, that the public interaction really matters.

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        3. Jacob Gudiol‏Verified account @JacobGudiol 8 Nov 2020
          Replying to @Loretta_Torrago @GidMK

          Workplace, universitys etc

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Nurit Baytch‏ @NuritBaytch 8 Nov 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          If 100% of Americans wear effective masks outside their homes, then there would be no inter-household transmission and eventually intra-household transmission would end too. intra-household transmission starts with inter-household transmission

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Jacob Gudiol‏Verified account @JacobGudiol 8 Nov 2020
          Replying to @NuritBaytch @GidMK

          Workplace, universities etc are in the sentence to. To that you need to ad restaurants and other places were people eat and drink South Korea already have about 95% mask wearing. Restrictions on business, rules on physical distancing etc and the virus hasn't disappeared

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Michael Palmer‏ @medic_southside 8 Nov 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          While I have no doubt your analysis of that paper is correct, isn't this last comment a version of survivorship bias?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Nov 2020
          Replying to @medic_southside

          Nah, it's true regardless of masking, like in Sydney where mask wearing is rare!

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. Starving Engineer‏ @edw_tweet 8 Nov 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Wasn't mask wearing shown to be an efficient protection on the CDC analysis of the USS Roosevelt outbreak? Also masks seem to reduce initial viral load, leading to better outcomes - even if not completely stopping propagation. Swiss Army study shows more asymptomatic mask wearers

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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