THE COVID-19 TREND (roughly):
Cases
*1-2 weeks*
Hospitalizations
*2-3 weeks*
Deaths
The whole "casedemic" thing is absolute nonsense
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Replying to @GidMK
But hospitalizations and deaths have an extremely lower slope than the cases. Extremely lower- like orders of magnitude less - to the point of questioning excessive mediation costs
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All else being equal, the slope of deaths is 1/100th that of cases (1% IFR). So two orders of magnitude less deaths than cases But not sure why matters given our current case numbers. COVID is #1 killer in much of W. Europe and all of USA
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Replying to @greg_travis @GidMK
It matters because we have to weigh lockdown costs and effectiveness vs actual harm/death by virus
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Lockdown costs have so far been totally unquantified by those who insist they are significant and separate from the costs of the pandemic. Meanwhile deaths from COVID are accurately quantified. It’s the number one killer in the USA
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Not really true. The IMF, for example, has a detailed analysis of thishttps://gidmk.medium.com/are-covid-19-lockdowns-worth-it-5b0bc0fd994a …
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