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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 5 Nov 2020
      Replying to @DrEliDavid @asafpeer

      Sure, but the case:death ratio is pretty meaningless as well. A better indicator is hospitalizations/ICU admissions, which are climbing steeply across Europe and the states. Deaths are a lagging indicator, but in e.g. Sweden are doubling every week or two already

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    2. Dr. Eli David‏Verified account @DrEliDavid 5 Nov 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @asafpeer

      The cases to deaths ratio are of course meaningless, yet how many people go around calculating a meaningless CFR based on this number of cases? Too many. And a few of them were thought to have 3 digit IQs...

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 5 Nov 2020
      Replying to @DrEliDavid @asafpeer

      Sure, but to the original point I think it's very clear that a) the initial wave had a similar number of cases to what we're seeing now and b) this is a huge epidemic that is overwhelming hospital systems in a similar way across Europe

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Dr. Eli David‏Verified account @DrEliDavid 5 Nov 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @asafpeer

      a) Of course. b) What's the definition of a deadly pandemic? Deadliest in a decade? Then in some countries yes, it is. Deadliest in the past several decades? No, it is not. In almost every country you will find deadlier years in the current century.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 5 Nov 2020
      Replying to @DrEliDavid @asafpeer

      I mean, it does depend to an extent on the indicator you're looking at, but my work has demonstrated the very high death rate from COVID-19 i.e. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v7 … The main reason for lower deaths, I'd argue, is lower spread of disease

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    6. Dr. Eli David‏Verified account @DrEliDavid 5 Nov 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @asafpeer

      So you predict that as the virus keeps spreading 2020 or 2021 will be the deadliest year in the past several decades?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 5 Nov 2020
      Replying to @DrEliDavid @asafpeer

      Not necessarily, although it's worth noting that since there's been a decreasing trend of 'deadliness' if we went back to 1990s levels it would be a huge number of excess deaths

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Dr. Eli David‏Verified account @DrEliDavid 5 Nov 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @asafpeer

      We will have to wait and see. I hate to prophesy, but here is one: In ten years from now people will look back at mortality rates of 2020 and won't understand why the world came to a halt.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 5 Nov 2020
      Replying to @DrEliDavid @asafpeer

      Or they'll look at the mortality rates and consider that the world halting probably saved a lot of lives! Complex

      0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    10. This Tweet is unavailable.
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 5 Nov 2020
      Replying to @DrEliDavid @asafpeer

      In what sense? Sweden seems to have done middle-of-the road on most measures - implemented relatively weak restrictions, saw relatively higher deaths, and is now looking at what they can do to slow a massive epidemic much like the rest of Europe

      2:49 PM - 5 Nov 2020
      • 2 Likes
      • David Gabay ܕܘܝܕ Asaf Peer
      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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        2. Dr. Eli David‏Verified account @DrEliDavid 5 Nov 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @asafpeer

          Sweden is the only Western European country that hasn't locked down at any stage. Just minimum crowding restrictions.

          3 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Asaf Peer‏ @asafpeer 5 Nov 2020
          Replying to @DrEliDavid @GidMK

          Lockdown is used to describe a wide variety of restrictions, it usually doesn't mean locking people in their house (although it does in some cases). Closing universities and highschools is a strict response.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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