Still a casedemic? https://twitter.com/DrEliDavid/status/1300915377392824326 …pic.twitter.com/D325BmL4qN
Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him
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Still a casedemic? https://twitter.com/DrEliDavid/status/1300915377392824326 …pic.twitter.com/D325BmL4qN
Yes: Compare the cases to deaths ratio to the first "wave"
Health Nerd Retweeted Health Nerd
That's actually surprisingly easy to explain - almost certainly mostly due to testing differences between the first and second wave. In the US for example:https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1321661890301366272?s=20 …
Health Nerd added,
Of course. And that's precisely why the daily case numbers should be normalized to number of tests to be meaningful. Looking at raw cases numbers is meaningless. Yet most are doing it.
Sure, but the case:death ratio is pretty meaningless as well. A better indicator is hospitalizations/ICU admissions, which are climbing steeply across Europe and the states. Deaths are a lagging indicator, but in e.g. Sweden are doubling every week or two already
The cases to deaths ratio are of course meaningless, yet how many people go around calculating a meaningless CFR based on this number of cases? Too many. And a few of them were thought to have 3 digit IQs...
Sure, but to the original point I think it's very clear that a) the initial wave had a similar number of cases to what we're seeing now and b) this is a huge epidemic that is overwhelming hospital systems in a similar way across Europe
a) Of course. b) What's the definition of a deadly pandemic? Deadliest in a decade? Then in some countries yes, it is. Deadliest in the past several decades? No, it is not. In almost every country you will find deadlier years in the current century.
I mean, it does depend to an extent on the indicator you're looking at, but my work has demonstrated the very high death rate from COVID-19 i.e. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v7 … The main reason for lower deaths, I'd argue, is lower spread of disease
So you predict that as the virus keeps spreading 2020 or 2021 will be the deadliest year in the past several decades?
Not necessarily, although it's worth noting that since there's been a decreasing trend of 'deadliness' if we went back to 1990s levels it would be a huge number of excess deaths
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