[CW: Sack up, we're going long.] So, important bits of pre-election polling sucked. Why? Well, I don't run a polling organisation, but I have run a few experiments, and I do spend a lot of time thinking about bullshit and misrepresentation in the presentation of numbers. So!
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NONRESPONSE BIAS I'm wondering about how handling of people who don't respond to overtures for information. "Hi, I'm from Big Media Company You Hate, and this is an extra long phonecall about your opinion on the presid..." *click*
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Are nonresponses recorded and balanced? If they are, can they be matched to areas with known demographic/voting patterns? Hope so. But a lot of the language of polling seems to imply they only rely on information they got, not on imputation of information they didn't get.
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Replying to @jamesheathers
The companies do a lot of weighting to try and adjust for non-response bias but it is often pretty black box stuff with heaps of assumptions
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Replying to @GidMK
And those are protected knowledge? That's the secret sauce?
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One of the secret sauces. Usually very proprietary and only included in the methods as "we did something (have a guess)"
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