This remains mathematically impossible, and really just one of the silliest myths to come out of the pandemic https://t.co/Bx1IogGytQ
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Replying to @GidMK
Perhaps you should research who the esteemed gentleman is, then reconsider he might actually know a tad more than folk commenting on this, and indeed who started the thread
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Replying to @Iansharpsmithy
Why would it matter who someone was if what they were saying was mathematically impossible?
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Replying to @GidMK
But it isn't is it? It can yield 95+% false pos. As in the Florence three. If they tested them daily, you would have got that result
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Replying to @Iansharpsmithy
Nope. Take the ONS results for their population screen - they tested 219,000 samples and saw 200 positives in July. The highest possible rate of false positives, mathematically, would be 0.08%. Given that not all of the 200 positives were false, it's even lower than that!
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Replying to @GidMK @Iansharpsmithy
This isn't some crazy conspiracy, it's simply maths. If the false positive rate was higher than 0.08%, the ONS results could not have happened
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Replying to @GidMK @Iansharpsmithy
We see similar numbers in Australia. In NSW, we tested 600,000 people in October, with about 230 positives. If we assume that every positive is a false positive, that gives a false positive rate of 0.04%
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But we actually retest most people in NSW, because a positive test has serious consequences for businesses here. And in those 230 tests, only one was a false positive on the second test. So the actual false positive rate is closer to one in a million, or 0.0001%
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