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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Nov 2020

      I think this chart is actually pretty amazing. The Aussie state of Victoria completely controlled their epidemic DURING WINTER while similarly-sized European countries experienced an exponential increase in casespic.twitter.com/hMxVOa4KdC

      26 replies 84 retweets 288 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Stephen Dugmore‏ @StephenBDugmore 2 Nov 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      I am surprised you don't think seasonality played a role. You are comparing South to Northern temperate countries. The peaks have almost all been in winter with declines into spring. The same as South Africa (who definitely did not 'control' the spread despite best efforts)pic.twitter.com/Rtp6gHqD0A

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    3.  🌳 Pietro Speroni di Fenizio‏ @psdf 2 Nov 2020
      Replying to @StephenBDugmore @GidMK

      Yes, the graph of southern countries should be shifted by 6 months right or left and the phenomenon would disappear

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Nov 2020
      Replying to @psdf @StephenBDugmore

      Quite the opposite in fact - Victoria controlled their epidemic over the course of WINTER and is now heading into summer with 4 consecutive days of 0 cases of local transmission. July is midwinter in Victoria

      10:44 PM - 2 Nov 2020
      • 1 Like
      • Tom Andrews💙
      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. Stephen Dugmore‏ @StephenBDugmore 2 Nov 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @psdf

          No-one (I would imagine!) disputes Australia controlling the outbreak The point is that your chart shows Northern Temperate countries in the same timeframe as a Southern Temperate country. Do you think that is a good comparison for looking at rise and fall of cases?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Nov 2020
          Replying to @StephenBDugmore @psdf

          No. That was why I pointed out that the reduction in cases in Victoria happened IN SPITE of seasonality, while the explosion of cases in Europe follows a more predictable pattern

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Andrew Flood  👨🏻‍💻 📝 🕺‏ @andrewflood 2 Nov 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @psdf @StephenBDugmore

          Not sure these guys are ready for idea winter happens at a different time of year south of equator. Also it’s early days but this is Ireland now a few weeks after measures were introduced in both jurisdictions. At different times, intensities & incidence as RoI has 2.5 times poppic.twitter.com/HU11VnTm0j

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Stephen Dugmore‏ @StephenBDugmore 2 Nov 2020
          Replying to @andrewflood @GidMK @psdf

          Sorry i am not following you. I live in the southern hemisphere and am fully aware that winter happens at a different time of year!! In fact that is the whole point of my question as to whether the different seasonality plays a part in when cases rise or fall. What am I missing?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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