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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Mark “Bannister-Safe” Newton‏ @NewtonMark 2 Nov 2020

      Mark “Bannister-Safe” Newton Retweeted Health Nerd

      While true, if the chance of a false positive is 1:100,000 and you’re doing 25k tests per day, you’ll get a couple per week. If you have suppressed the virus to the point where transmission is negligible, a moderate percentage of positives might be false.https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1323450859984809985 …

      Mark “Bannister-Safe” Newton added,

      Health NerdVerified account @GidMK
      Because it's somehow still coming up, no most positive COVID-19 tests are not "false positives", in fact false positives are very rare https://gidmk.medium.com/most-positive-coronavirus-tests-are-true-positives-60c95fe54fec …
      Show this thread
      1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Nov 2020
      Replying to @NewtonMark

      This is true, but you also have to consider that the people being tested are not a representative sample of the population - they are usually mostly symptomatic and thus have a higher risk than the general populace

      7:20 PM - 2 Nov 2020
      • 1 Retweet
      • 9 Likes
      • Dublin Living - YouTube is not research or science Corax The Raven Chief Chaos Monkey blahloney Luísa Teixeira Dolce Kate Russell, MS, RDN WatsonsTroops Croakey News
      2 replies 1 retweet 9 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Dr KayRay‏ @ktibus 2 Nov 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @NewtonMark

          In addition, when case numbers are very low, you can also retest very easily.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Mark “Bannister-Safe” Newton‏ @NewtonMark 2 Nov 2020
          Replying to @ktibus @GidMK

          So in NSW (and maybe Vic too, dunno) the stats tend to hairtrigger on positive tests, as you'd expect; And retests don't show up until a day or two later, as corrections. This happened a lot during the May/June period, low count of positives taken seriously, "cleaned up" later.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Mark “Bannister-Safe” Newton‏ @NewtonMark 2 Nov 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          That may be the case, but if you were doing COVID-19 tests in November last year, 100% of those people would be COVID-negative, you'd still get positive tests, and 100% of those test results would have been false positives even though the reliability of the test is very high.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Nov 2020
          Replying to @NewtonMark

          Yep absolutely, with a low enough population prevalence false positives become more of an issue. But even in NSW, which did ~600,000 tests in October, the absolute lower bound of specificity if every +ve was false is ~99.97% so it's a pretty minor problem

          1 reply 1 retweet 0 likes
        4. Show replies

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