11/n But we can go further even than this. What if we graphed the PROPORTION of infections in each age band, inferred from deaths? It looks something like this Now the waves barely look different at allpic.twitter.com/IozFDdIxpu
Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him
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11/n But we can go further even than this. What if we graphed the PROPORTION of infections in each age band, inferred from deaths? It looks something like this Now the waves barely look different at allpic.twitter.com/IozFDdIxpu
12/n In particular, if I put the two graphs side-by-side, you can see how a TINY change in the proportion in older people being infected can lead to a HUGE numerical increase in deathspic.twitter.com/QUyfQQh9z7
13/n But broadly speaking, using this (again, VERY CRUDE) method, there appears to be little difference between waves 1 & 2 in the US It's simply that our testing changed, not that the disease itself was different
14/n Indeed, as you can see, the FIRST wave in the US PROBABLY HAD MORE CASES THAN THE SECOND despite having fewer confirmed casespic.twitter.com/20lUU4KuOR
15/n Interestingly, this also gives us a very crude number of total cases in the US roughly in line with @youyanggu's modelled estimates, with about 12-15% of the country infected by late September
16/n Another point - people have said that this is flawed because the IFR in the second wave is less than that of the first If you reduce the IFRs in the second wave by 35%, this is what the graph looks like. Still not very different!pic.twitter.com/cuE89EVxps
Fascinating thread.
Looking at deaths cf ICU admissions, former seem to be rising much less quickly (or much later) & the rate of rise seems to be falling (while the rise of admissions & ICU nos continues).
Seems different from before...
https://twitter.com/Laconic_doc/status/1323327697947418625 …pic.twitter.com/eZC0C4Rnwb
Dr Kit Byatt Retweeted Dr Kit Byatt
FWIW, I had some thoughts as to other factors that might be having an effect...https://twitter.com/Laconic_doc/status/1322661032762986497 …
Dr Kit Byatt added,
I'm confused - the chart shows an exponential increase in all parameters, that's pretty steep!
It seemed to me the slope of the blue curve (deaths) on the log scale is beginning to lessen over the past week or so, the others curves remain fairly straight (of course, it may be random variation)... (...FWIW the doubling time according to these data is v roughly 14 days)
I'd be careful over interpreting the slope in recent days - unlike case and hospital days, deaths are a lagging indicator that takes time to catch up
Fair point, though I don't include the last 3 days in the plotted rolling average for deaths—I guess there could be a weekend effect (which does delay death reports)
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