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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 28 Oct 2020

      10/n Now, as I've repeatedly said, this is VERY CRUDE For example, deaths are so rare in the under-5s that it's hard to estimate any realistic number of cases in this age group. It's likely that they are underrepresented to an extent

      1 reply 0 retweets 30 likes
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    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 28 Oct 2020

      11/n But we can go further even than this. What if we graphed the PROPORTION of infections in each age band, inferred from deaths? It looks something like this Now the waves barely look different at allpic.twitter.com/IozFDdIxpu

      1 reply 2 retweets 29 likes
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    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 28 Oct 2020

      12/n In particular, if I put the two graphs side-by-side, you can see how a TINY change in the proportion in older people being infected can lead to a HUGE numerical increase in deathspic.twitter.com/QUyfQQh9z7

      1 reply 4 retweets 30 likes
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    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 28 Oct 2020

      13/n But broadly speaking, using this (again, VERY CRUDE) method, there appears to be little difference between waves 1 & 2 in the US It's simply that our testing changed, not that the disease itself was different

      2 replies 4 retweets 35 likes
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    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 28 Oct 2020

      14/n Indeed, as you can see, the FIRST wave in the US PROBABLY HAD MORE CASES THAN THE SECOND despite having fewer confirmed casespic.twitter.com/20lUU4KuOR

      1 reply 0 retweets 33 likes
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    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 28 Oct 2020

      15/n Interestingly, this also gives us a very crude number of total cases in the US roughly in line with @youyanggu's modelled estimates, with about 12-15% of the country infected by late September

      5 replies 2 retweets 38 likes
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    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 29 Oct 2020

      16/n Another point - people have said that this is flawed because the IFR in the second wave is less than that of the first If you reduce the IFRs in the second wave by 35%, this is what the graph looks like. Still not very different!pic.twitter.com/cuE89EVxps

      3 replies 1 retweet 18 likes
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    8. Dr Kit Byatt‏ @Laconic_doc 2 Nov 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      Fascinating thread. Looking at deaths cf ICU admissions, former seem to be rising much less quickly (or much later) & the rate of rise seems to be falling (while the rise of admissions & ICU nos continues). Seems different from before... 🤔 https://twitter.com/Laconic_doc/status/1323327697947418625 …pic.twitter.com/eZC0C4Rnwb

      chart of COVID-19-related hospital admissions, inpatients, ventilated (ICU) patients & deaths in England, as a 7-day rolling average, at 2 November (data from NHS England website)
NB logarithmic scale
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Dr Kit Byatt‏ @Laconic_doc 2 Nov 2020
      Replying to @Laconic_doc @GidMK

      Dr Kit Byatt Retweeted Dr Kit Byatt

      FWIW, I had some thoughts as to other factors that might be having an effect...https://twitter.com/Laconic_doc/status/1322661032762986497 …

      Dr Kit Byatt added,

      Dr Kit Byatt @Laconic_doc
      Replying to @Cadoret
      Several possibilities: a) younger pts (thus lower mortality) b) better treatments c) more vulnerable people died in first wave d) better PPE e) care homes better protected f) NHS not under excess pressure (yet), so good care g) something else h) a combination of the above
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Nov 2020
      Replying to @Laconic_doc

      I'm confused - the chart shows an exponential increase in all parameters, that's pretty steep!

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Nov 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @Laconic_doc

      The chain of events is infection->hospitalization->ICU->death so we'd expect cases to rise first, followed by the rest in succession

      3:18 PM - 2 Nov 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. Dr Kit Byatt‏ @Laconic_doc 2 Nov 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          That's true of those hospitalized; the deaths data = 'all deaths' (incl at home or in nursing homes, & I don't know if the proportion admitted is the same as earlier). I suspect the inflection in the deaths curve (*before* admissions/ICU start rising) might represent NH deaths.

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