One thing that I rarely see mentioned is the context for a "herd immunity" style strategy of doing nothing at all about the pandemic In particular, how long will it take?
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Some simple calculus, then, gives us about 4 million infections prior to September, in a population of about 67 million So how long to go at 100,000 infections a day?
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Well, assuming a lowered herd immunity threshold of 40% to account for heterogeneity (this is quite low, but not entirely unreasonable), we need a further ~23 million people infected for things to go back to "normal"
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At 100,000 infections per day, that's 230 days, or about 33 weeks at this level of infection to reach a stable state where the epidemic is no longer spreading
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Now, obviously, epidemics don't work quite like that. Without restrictions, we would expect the number of new infections to grow which would reduce the total time it takes to infect 40% of Britain
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Even so, I think it's worthwhile to note that the time period to get back to "normal" if you relax all restrictions is not tomorrow, nor next week, but in all likelihood months or even years
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End of conversation
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Are 100k infections/day sustainable by our health system ? 2-3% will need ICU treatmeant, so there will be an influx of 2.5k newly(!) admitted ICU patients Median duration of ICU treatment is ~14 days. So need ~35k ICUs incl. personnel
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