The REACT studies from the UK offer some information on this. Recently, they have estimated ~100,000 people being infected a day, with a robust estimate of 6% population prevalence prior to this outbreak https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/institute-of-global-health-innovation/MEDRXIV-2020-219725v1-Elliott.pdf … https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/institute-of-global-health-innovation/REACT1_r6_interim_preprint.pdf …
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Some simple calculus, then, gives us about 4 million infections prior to September, in a population of about 67 million So how long to go at 100,000 infections a day?
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Well, assuming a lowered herd immunity threshold of 40% to account for heterogeneity (this is quite low, but not entirely unreasonable), we need a further ~23 million people infected for things to go back to "normal"
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At 100,000 infections per day, that's 230 days, or about 33 weeks at this level of infection to reach a stable state where the epidemic is no longer spreading
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Now, obviously, epidemics don't work quite like that. Without restrictions, we would expect the number of new infections to grow which would reduce the total time it takes to infect 40% of Britain
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Even so, I think it's worthwhile to note that the time period to get back to "normal" if you relax all restrictions is not tomorrow, nor next week, but in all likelihood months or even years
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If you know how to herd cats, you might be able to work it out.
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Covids response in every individual is different, we have had young unexpected deaths too. This no-bar herd immunity may kill more. Every life matters and counts. Have to remain very vigilant.
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