Thread. Call me an old softy if you like, but the most important part is “that's without taking account of other harms done by the lockdown to people's welfare.”https://twitter.com/julianHjessop/status/1321929510275735554 …
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Replying to @cjsnowdon
Problem is that the counterfactual - a long-lasting epidemic with a large burden of cases - may be just as harmful economically. The IMF report is a useful read on this pointhttps://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/09/30/world-economic-outlook-october-2020 …
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Replying to @GidMK @cjsnowdon
In many ways, waiting a long time for a lockdown gives you the worst of both worlds economically - the smallest impact in terms of reducing cases, but the largest and longest lived impact on the economy both from the enormous epidemic and the lockdown itself
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Replying to @GidMK
It’s way too early to make judgements about the wisdom of “early” or “late” lockdowns. Let see how things look after countries have been through their third and fourth lockdowns.
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To a certain extent perhaps, but I think if we base our opinions on previous evidence then that's what has been largely true before
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