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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 29 Oct 2020

      Health Nerd Retweeted Marc Bevand

      You have to wonder at what point all of the people proudly proclaiming over the last 4 months that Sweden is at herd immunity will admit that they were wronghttps://twitter.com/zorinaq/status/1321806754716426240 …

      Health Nerd added,

      Marc Bevand @zorinaq
      «herd immunity» *Dr Evil's air quotes* #Sweden #covid pic.twitter.com/K52EYnoXGT
      Show this thread
      45 replies 108 retweets 389 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 29 Oct 2020

      Should be noted for the people who misunderstand - herd immunity is about CASES. By definition, if you have a massive epidemic, the population is not at herd immunity

      5 replies 10 retweets 75 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Chris Masterjohn‏ @ChrisMasterjohn 29 Oct 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      While essentially true, I think that misses an extremely important point about interindividual variation in susceptibility. If the most susceptible people are hit first, then the severity should go down and down as herd immunity is reached, even before the cases do.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 29 Oct 2020
      Replying to @ChrisMasterjohn

      That's not entirety untrue, but the central point is that the accelerating outbreaks are still inconsistent with herd immunity

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Chris Masterjohn‏ @ChrisMasterjohn 29 Oct 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      Very inconsistent with having reached it already, agreed.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 29 Oct 2020
      Replying to @ChrisMasterjohn

      While it's still potentially possible that the immunity threshold is very substantially lower than our traditional static model, I do think that there are enough examples now in places with 40-60% infections to say that it is at least very rarely the case

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Chris Masterjohn‏ @ChrisMasterjohn 29 Oct 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      What examples would you offer that can’t be easily attributed to overshoot?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 29 Oct 2020
      Replying to @ChrisMasterjohn

      What do you mean by easily attributed to overshoot?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Chris Masterjohn‏ @ChrisMasterjohn 29 Oct 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      Small communities with high population densities where ~60-80% were infected in a matter of weeks. If the threshold is reached rapidly, it can easily be 2xed or 3xed because those infected can still spread it.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 29 Oct 2020
      Replying to @ChrisMasterjohn

      Oh, then many examples yes. A number of places in South America have fairly reliable estimates of 40%+, there was a randomized targeted sample of vulnerable communities in the Ile-De-France with >50%, the Qatari serology estimates, cities in India (although some caveats there)

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 29 Oct 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @ChrisMasterjohn

      60-80% not so much, but I think we can very confidently say that the earlier modelling exercises that posited thresholds of 10-20% have largely turned out to be wrong. 40-60% is certainly still possible

      8:06 PM - 29 Oct 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Chris Masterjohn‏ @ChrisMasterjohn 29 Oct 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          I think in order to falsify 20%, what you would need is a rise from 20 to 50% that took at least 2 months. The reason being that any rapidity near the threshold easily leads to overshoot. So the slower the increase, the clearer the falsification. Do any of those fit the bill?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Chris Masterjohn‏ @ChrisMasterjohn 29 Oct 2020
          Replying to @ChrisMasterjohn @GidMK

          I also think it’s important to control for definitions of infections somehow. I’d want to see that multiplying the official cases by some factor and seroprevalence give similar results for example.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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