You have to wonder at what point all of the people proudly proclaiming over the last 4 months that Sweden is at herd immunity will admit that they were wronghttps://twitter.com/zorinaq/status/1321806754716426240 …
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60-80% not so much, but I think we can very confidently say that the earlier modelling exercises that posited thresholds of 10-20% have largely turned out to be wrong. 40-60% is certainly still possible
I think in order to falsify 20%, what you would need is a rise from 20 to 50% that took at least 2 months. The reason being that any rapidity near the threshold easily leads to overshoot. So the slower the increase, the clearer the falsification. Do any of those fit the bill?
I also think it’s important to control for definitions of infections somehow. I’d want to see that multiplying the official cases by some factor and seroprevalence give similar results for example.
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