Thread. Call me an old softy if you like, but the most important part is “that's without taking account of other harms done by the lockdown to people's welfare.”https://twitter.com/julianHjessop/status/1321929510275735554 …
Problem is that the counterfactual - a long-lasting epidemic with a large burden of cases - may be just as harmful economically. The IMF report is a useful read on this pointhttps://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/09/30/world-economic-outlook-october-2020 …
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In many ways, waiting a long time for a lockdown gives you the worst of both worlds economically - the smallest impact in terms of reducing cases, but the largest and longest lived impact on the economy both from the enormous epidemic and the lockdown itself
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It’s way too early to make judgements about the wisdom of “early” or “late” lockdowns. Let see how things look after countries have been through their third and fourth lockdowns.
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