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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 28 Oct 2020

      6/n Yes, the waves are numerically different, but the PROPORTION of deaths in each age band is...remarkably stable. Lots of deaths in older people, far fewer in the younger groups

      1 reply 3 retweets 47 likes
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    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 28 Oct 2020

      7/n But what does that say about cases? Well, we can actually use these death figures to (VERY crudely) back-calculate an estimate of the number of cases each week in the US by age

      1 reply 1 retweet 28 likes
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    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 28 Oct 2020

      8/n Using our age-stratified IFR paper, we can (again VERY CRUDELY) estimate cases by saying: IFR = deaths/true cases => true cases = deaths/IFR https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v6 …pic.twitter.com/Wxpf2RPHhS

      3 replies 0 retweets 35 likes
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    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 28 Oct 2020

      9/n If we plug these deaths and age-stratified IFRs into our equation, and assume that there is a median ~30 day lag between infection and reported death, we end up with a graph that looks like this for cases Not as different as before!pic.twitter.com/u2GPqrbnT6

      1 reply 3 retweets 33 likes
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    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 28 Oct 2020

      10/n Now, as I've repeatedly said, this is VERY CRUDE For example, deaths are so rare in the under-5s that it's hard to estimate any realistic number of cases in this age group. It's likely that they are underrepresented to an extent

      1 reply 0 retweets 30 likes
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    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 28 Oct 2020

      11/n But we can go further even than this. What if we graphed the PROPORTION of infections in each age band, inferred from deaths? It looks something like this Now the waves barely look different at allpic.twitter.com/IozFDdIxpu

      1 reply 2 retweets 29 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 28 Oct 2020

      12/n In particular, if I put the two graphs side-by-side, you can see how a TINY change in the proportion in older people being infected can lead to a HUGE numerical increase in deathspic.twitter.com/QUyfQQh9z7

      1 reply 4 retweets 30 likes
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    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 28 Oct 2020

      13/n But broadly speaking, using this (again, VERY CRUDE) method, there appears to be little difference between waves 1 & 2 in the US It's simply that our testing changed, not that the disease itself was different

      2 replies 4 retweets 35 likes
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    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 28 Oct 2020

      14/n Indeed, as you can see, the FIRST wave in the US PROBABLY HAD MORE CASES THAN THE SECOND despite having fewer confirmed casespic.twitter.com/20lUU4KuOR

      1 reply 0 retweets 33 likes
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    10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 28 Oct 2020

      15/n Interestingly, this also gives us a very crude number of total cases in the US roughly in line with @youyanggu's modelled estimates, with about 12-15% of the country infected by late September

      5 replies 2 retweets 38 likes
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      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 29 Oct 2020

      16/n Another point - people have said that this is flawed because the IFR in the second wave is less than that of the first If you reduce the IFRs in the second wave by 35%, this is what the graph looks like. Still not very different!pic.twitter.com/cuE89EVxps

      3:41 PM - 29 Oct 2020
      • 1 Retweet
      • 18 Likes
      • blaaaa Loretta Torrago Dr Kit Byatt John 💙 🇬🇧 Daniel Cheek Peter Harrison Ofer Neiman #SaveBeita Universal Basic Income Pseudo Science Mahan Ghafari | ماهان غفاری
      3 replies 1 retweet 18 likes
        1. Mike Dee‏ @MikeDeeeeeee 29 Oct 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          I'm not really convinced as the question you ask in post 1 "is COVID-19 getting less deadly?". But then you assume the IFR stays the same (or reduces by 35%). But that is the question that is being asked so we can't just assume the answer! Otherwise, I like the charts very much.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Peter Harrison‏ @Villager1244 2 Nov 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Quick IFR reality check. Current US CFR @1.8%. Case detection @40% of infections (per Oliver Wyman, current top performing Covid modeler). Implied US IFR 0.72%. I believe this is consistent with your US IFR estimates, reduced maybe 10-15% for un-captured treatment improvements.

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        3. Peter Harrison‏ @Villager1244 2 Nov 2020
          Replying to @Villager1244 @GidMK and

          No evidence the virus has changed.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Dr Kit Byatt‏ @Laconic_doc 2 Nov 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Fascinating thread. Looking at deaths cf ICU admissions, former seem to be rising much less quickly (or much later) & the rate of rise seems to be falling (while the rise of admissions & ICU nos continues). Seems different from before... 🤔 https://twitter.com/Laconic_doc/status/1323327697947418625 …pic.twitter.com/eZC0C4Rnwb

          chart of COVID-19-related hospital admissions, inpatients, ventilated (ICU) patients & deaths in England, as a 7-day rolling average, at 2 November (data from NHS England website)
NB logarithmic scale
          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Dr Kit Byatt‏ @Laconic_doc 2 Nov 2020
          Replying to @Laconic_doc @GidMK

          Dr Kit Byatt Retweeted Dr Kit Byatt

          FWIW, I had some thoughts as to other factors that might be having an effect...https://twitter.com/Laconic_doc/status/1322661032762986497 …

          Dr Kit Byatt added,

          Dr Kit Byatt @Laconic_doc
          Replying to @Cadoret
          Several possibilities: a) younger pts (thus lower mortality) b) better treatments c) more vulnerable people died in first wave d) better PPE e) care homes better protected f) NHS not under excess pressure (yet), so good care g) something else h) a combination of the above
          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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