8/n Using our age-stratified IFR paper, we can (again VERY CRUDELY) estimate cases by saying: IFR = deaths/true cases => true cases = deaths/IFR https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v6 …pic.twitter.com/Wxpf2RPHhS
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Well, we demonstrated that a large proportion of the variation in IFR by REGION was due to age, so accounting for this in the analysis should correct for that mostly. If you assume a constant decline in IFR after the first wave (i.e. reducing by ~1% per week)
The graph does indeed change a bit, but not as much as you might expect. Even if I assume a 35% reduction in IFR you end up with 2 peaks of almost identical size in terms of casespic.twitter.com/7CjXA8Xrg2
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