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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 28 Oct 2020

      8/n Using our age-stratified IFR paper, we can (again VERY CRUDELY) estimate cases by saying: IFR = deaths/true cases => true cases = deaths/IFR https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v6 …pic.twitter.com/Wxpf2RPHhS

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    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 28 Oct 2020

      9/n If we plug these deaths and age-stratified IFRs into our equation, and assume that there is a median ~30 day lag between infection and reported death, we end up with a graph that looks like this for cases Not as different as before!pic.twitter.com/u2GPqrbnT6

      1 reply 3 retweets 33 likes
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    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 28 Oct 2020

      10/n Now, as I've repeatedly said, this is VERY CRUDE For example, deaths are so rare in the under-5s that it's hard to estimate any realistic number of cases in this age group. It's likely that they are underrepresented to an extent

      1 reply 0 retweets 30 likes
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    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 28 Oct 2020

      11/n But we can go further even than this. What if we graphed the PROPORTION of infections in each age band, inferred from deaths? It looks something like this Now the waves barely look different at allpic.twitter.com/IozFDdIxpu

      1 reply 2 retweets 29 likes
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    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 28 Oct 2020

      12/n In particular, if I put the two graphs side-by-side, you can see how a TINY change in the proportion in older people being infected can lead to a HUGE numerical increase in deathspic.twitter.com/QUyfQQh9z7

      1 reply 4 retweets 30 likes
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    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 28 Oct 2020

      13/n But broadly speaking, using this (again, VERY CRUDE) method, there appears to be little difference between waves 1 & 2 in the US It's simply that our testing changed, not that the disease itself was different

      2 replies 4 retweets 35 likes
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    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 28 Oct 2020

      14/n Indeed, as you can see, the FIRST wave in the US PROBABLY HAD MORE CASES THAN THE SECOND despite having fewer confirmed casespic.twitter.com/20lUU4KuOR

      1 reply 0 retweets 33 likes
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    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 28 Oct 2020

      15/n Interestingly, this also gives us a very crude number of total cases in the US roughly in line with @youyanggu's modelled estimates, with about 12-15% of the country infected by late September

      5 replies 2 retweets 38 likes
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    9. Tom Dric‏ @dric_tom 28 Oct 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @youyanggu

      If you look at death relative to hospitalization, there does seem to be a huge improvement for the second wave. I don't think the disease itself became less deadly, but it makes sense to think that in the first wave, hospitals were quickly overburdened and the ensuing chaos

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Tom Dric‏ @dric_tom 28 Oct 2020
      Replying to @dric_tom @GidMK @youyanggu

      led to a lot of avoidable deaths. As you may well know, IFR is neither constant across region or time. So in that sense, using a constant IFR to estimate the cases is kind of starting with your conclusion as assumption and working backwards.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 28 Oct 2020
      Replying to @dric_tom @youyanggu

      Well, we demonstrated that a large proportion of the variation in IFR by REGION was due to age, so accounting for this in the analysis should correct for that mostly. If you assume a constant decline in IFR after the first wave (i.e. reducing by ~1% per week)

      9:50 PM - 28 Oct 2020
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        1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 28 Oct 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @dric_tom @youyanggu

          The graph does indeed change a bit, but not as much as you might expect. Even if I assume a 35% reduction in IFR you end up with 2 peaks of almost identical size in terms of casespic.twitter.com/7CjXA8Xrg2

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